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Poll: Post-war confidence boost ends
ABC News/Money magazine index drops after post-war euphoria fades.
April 29, 2003: 6:37 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A month-long surge in consumer confidence ended with a sharp snap last week, putting a quick end to hopes of a sustained rally, according to a poll issued by ABC News and Money magazine.

Separately, the Conference Board, a business research group based in New York, said its closely watched index of consumer confidence jumped to 81 in April from a revised 61.4 in March.

Giving up a third of its postwar gains, the ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on ratings of current economic conditions, fell a steep five points to -19 for the week ended April 27, on its scale of positive-100 to negative-100.

Confidence followed a similar course after the 1991 Gulf War. It rose 10 points in the five weeks following the war's successful end, then faltered, losing three points in one week after its peak and six points over the next month. The index continued its gradual descent, bottoming out at a record low of -50 in early 1992.

Twenty-nine percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, down slightly from 30 percent the previous week. The poll's lowest level of economic confidence, 7 percent, was set in late 1991 and early 1992.

Fifty-six percent of the respondents rate their own finances as excellent or good, down from 60 percent in the preceding week. The lowest figure in this category was 42 percent, set in March 1993.

The survey's buying gauge, which measures consumers' willingness to spend, fell to 36 percent from 37 percent the week prior. The lowest figure in this category, 20 percent, was set in the fall of 1990.

Consumer confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +6 among people in higher-income household compared to -52 in the lowest.

The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1,00 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,003 interviews in the month ending April 27, 2003, and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points.  Top of page




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