NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Figuring out what Alan Greenspan is saying, steering a course between his "indeeds" and "to be sures" is such a mind-numbing task that there is something of a cottage industry on Wall Street devoted to interpreting Fed-speak. But the Fed Chairman's chatter is crystal clear compared with the Bush administration's mixed messages on the dollar.
Monday morning the currency market was in a tizzy in reaction to a remark President Bush made ahead of the G8 summit in France this weekend. "Our policy is a strong dollar," the President said. "And we believe that good fiscal and monetary policy will cause our economy to grow and that the marketplace will see a growing economy and, therefore, strengthen the dollar."
"The market, at this point in time, has devalued the dollar, which is contrary to our policy," Bush concluded.
It all seems to directly contradict remarks Treasury Secretary John Snow made just three weeks back, when he noted that a weak dollar helps exports. In follow-up remarks a week later, he seemed to have put the United States "strong dollar" policy in for a major retooling.
"You want people to have confidence in your currency," Snow said. "You want them to see the currency as a good medium of exchange. You want the currency to be a good store of value. You want it to be something people are willing to hold. You want it hard to counterfeit, like our new $20 bill. Those are the qualities."
Most currency traders had thought that the "strong dollar" policy had something to do with fostering economic policies -- like low inflation, reduced debt and strong growth -- which lead to a higher exchange rate for the dollar.
And Snow's shift seemed to make sense given the recent shift in Federal Reserve policy. By indicating that it will leave rates low for the foreseeable future, the Fed is trying to stir up the embers of inflation. A weaker currency, too, tends to lead to higher prices.
So what to make of Bush's comments? A number of commentators have noted that there seemed to be a rift between the White House and the Treasury over the dollar, but that doesn't make much sense. The new Treasury Secretary is very much the President's man, and it's hard to think that he was talking out of school -- particularly after his predecessor got into so much trouble for making gaffes.
Rather, it seems the Administration has decided that the dollar has weakened enough for Washington's purposes, and it wants to ensure that the greenback's decline doesn't get out of hand. Furthermore, European officials have started to indicate a growing worry that the euro's strength could sap their economies. With the President trying to mend the U.S. relationship with France and Germany, it makes sense that he would lend a hand.
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