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Commentary > Bid and Ask
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The real bond bubble
The big rise in Japanese rates could have major implications.
July 3, 2003: 10:15 AM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stunned by the big turn U.S. interest rates have taken over the past three weeks? It ain't nothing compared to what's been happening in Japan.

After crashing to a low of 0.43 percent (no, that's not a typo), yields on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond began to rise. At the beginning, investors thought it was nothing but a minor adjustment -- everybody had written off Japan's economy long ago, and the notion that the country's interest rates could rise significantly was anathema.

But then they kept on rising, and a tinge of nervousness crept into the Japanese bond market that maybe the long era of plunging yields was coming to an end. Tuesday's Tankan report -- a closely watched measure of business sentiment that showed large manufacturers at their least pessimistic level in two years -- pushed the market's worry, and bond yields, higher still.

Then came the government's ¥1.9 billion bond auction Thursday, a huge disappointment. With relatively few investors interested in the new issue, the yield on the 10-year bond shot up 0.23 percentage points to 1.12 percent.

The big drop in Japanese bonds could have major implications. For years now investors have used Japan as a source of cheap capital for investments elsewhere. In what is called the carry trade, they borrow at low Japanese rates and buy higher yielding issues, like U.S. Treasurys or European bonds. And because the Japanese government is so intent on not allowing the yen to strengthen against the dollar, they don't have to worry too much over getting hammered by currency changes.

But the sharp rise in Japanese bond yields throws that equation out the window, forcing them to unwind the carry trades. To do that they have to sell the stuff they bought and then pay back their creditors. If, heaven forfend, they've used leverage to maximize their investments return, things can get really messy. That's what happened in 1998, when the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management blew up.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.