NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - When Pimco headman Bill Gross talks, the market has to listen. Which is too bad, really.
It's not that Gross' monthly missives aren't important -- as the overseer of over $250 billion in assets, the guy is the major force in the bond market. It's not that he doesn't have an interesting point of view. It's just that figuring out what he's written makes reading "Finnegan's Wake" seem like a walk in the park.
His latest, which came out late Tuesday and which you can read for yourself on the Pimco site if you're into self-flagellation, is no exception. The drawing of a smiley face below the title, the Donovan quote, the long leadup where he talks about happiness and what he did over his summer vacation, are all par for the course. Then he reproduces the notes summarizing his investment strategy for the next several years that he jotted during his Alaskan cruise. Nothing like the extra thrill of having to decipher his handwriting. Does the man know no mercy?
From what we can make of it, Gross appears to believe that the U.S. economy is going to be challenged for some time, and that both stock and bond returns will be muted. He reckons that last month was probably the top for the Treasury market, just as March 2000 was the top for stocks.
The big problem, Gross reckons, is that it will take time for the U.S. economy to get going again. In such an environment, the Federal Reserve will need to do what it can to keep borrowing costs low, including the use of "ceilings" -- which is shorthand for using bond purchases to keep Treasury yields from going over a predetermined level. That, and further depreciation of the dollar, will help fan the fires of inflation, which in turn will help wash away the economy's heavy debt load.
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Justin Lahart, senior writer at CNN/Money, explains what Pimco's Bill Gross is saying in his latest note.
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Gross goes on to list a number of ways to invest in such a climate. The first is to go after the "highest carry" for the lowest possible duration -- in other words, he won't be buying short-term debt or long-term debt, opting instead for something in between.
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, seem like a good idea to Gross. These are bonds whose rate of return rises and falls with inflation, offering investors safety in an inflationary environment, but freezing them out of returns in a disinflationary one.
Gross thinks that the time has come to look for returns globally, a shift from recent history, where a U.S.-centric investment strategy offers the best returns.
For his final entry, Gross writes "Bonds+ sales and volatility strategies." Or maybe it's "Bonds+ and volatility sales strategies." Good luck with figuring out that one...
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