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Bond yields hit one-year high
Drop in Treasury prices could have wide repercussions for mortgage rates and the economy.
July 29, 2003: 6:44 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Treasury bond prices sank for the fifth straight session Tuesday, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to its highest level in nearly a year.

Concerns that economic growth will pick up soon, meaning interest rates have bottomed and inflation may accelerate, have sent Treasury prices tumbling in recent weeks. The decline Tuesday, even after a weak economic report, was a sign that all the selling has yet to be flushed out of the bond market.

The benchmark 10-year note fell 1-5/32 in price to 93-18/32 to yield 4.44 percent late in the session, up from 4.31 percent late Monday. The yield was the highest since 4.46 percent on July 31, 2002, according to Reuters, and a world away from the 45-year low of 3.07 percent touched just last month.

The 30-year bond tumbled 1-21/32 in price to 100-19/32 to yield 5.33 percent, up from 5.23 percent late Monday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

A pickup in economic growth, and the accompanying expected rise in inflation, are a bond investor's worst enemy since they can erode the value of long-term investments.

The rise in bond yields has already pushed mortgage rates well above their recent lows, meaning the recent home refinancing boom could be ending. (For more on mortgage rates, click here).

The jump in long-term rates could also threaten what have been two pillars of the struggling economy: the housing market and consumer spending, which fuels two-thirds of the nation's economy. (For more on whether higher rates will hurt the housing market, click here).

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Treasurys tried to rebound early Tuesday after the Conference Board reported a surprise slump in its index of consumer sentiment in July. But mortgage-related selling quickly put an end to the advance, and investors soon got trampled hurrying to get out of their positions.

"The market seems to be a one-way street -- there's not a lot of buying interest," said Frank Hsu, director of global fixed income at Fimat.

(For more on the latest drop in consumer confidence, click here).

The steep declines in the Treasury market come after a three-year rally that pushed government bond yields to the lowest levels since the late 1950s.

Investors have also been worried about the flood of new issues that will soon hit the market. The Treasury Department said Monday it expects to borrow about $104 billion in the third quarter to help pay government bills and cope with the burgeoning budget deficit. The new supply puts pressure on prices, sending yields higher.

In addition, the rally in stocks has hurt bonds as investors have started chasing higher returns. (For more on how to navigate the bond market now, click here).

The five-year Treasury note shed 19/32 of a point in price to yield 3.27 percent, while the two-year note fell 5/32 to yield 1.69 percent.

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In currency trading, the dollar rebounded and bought ¥119.89 late in New York trading, up from ¥119.43 Monday. The euro fetched $1.1459, down from $1.149 late Monday.

Meanwhile, investors were awaiting more economic news this week. Reports on gross domestic product, manufacturing, jobs, and on spending and income all are set to be released later in the week. Any unexpected news is likely to have an impact on both bonds and the dollar -- just as the weak consumer confidence report boosted bonds, albeit briefly, early Tuesday.

"There's a huge number of reports Thursday that will act as the defining body," said Dennis Hynes, chief bond market strategist at RW Pressprich.  Top of page


-- from staff and wire reports




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.