CNN/Money  
graphic
Markets & Stocks
graphic
Bulls on the beach?
News on interest rates, retail sales, consumer sentiment amid late summer's often mercurial market.
August 10, 2003: 8:46 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A plethora of economic news and even a few earnings reports could bring good cheer this week, but with volume low and volatility high, stocks are more likely to swivel in skittish trade.

With mid-August approaching, the market is more than likely to start to see a bit of a pullback. August and September are traditionally the worst times of the year for stocks, and while some analysts argue that this season may not be as bad overall, the weak volume and lack of heavy corporate news can certainly lead to day-to-day selling.

The market is likely to take a similar path this week as it did last, said Michelle Clayman, chief investment officer at New Amsterdam Partners. "I think we'll see the same pattern we've been seeing, with some stock reaction to all the news, but an otherwise quiet week."

After rallying for three-and-a-half months off of the bottom reached March 11, stocks have spent the last six weeks adrift (click here for Friday's market report). Analysts say that the spring rally spoke partly to expectations for a second half economic pickup, which would then fuel further stock buying. Well, the recent reports have shown some improvement, but investors haven't exactly been buying up a storm of stocks in response, instead choosing to wait for more concrete proof that it's worth it to keep buying with gusto.

The laconic action of late has been exacerbated by the sleepy days of summer, as many traders and market participants are worrying more about what level of SPF to take to the beach than what level the S&P is working to sustain.

Last week's reports showed improvement in the services sector of the economy, a rise in retail sales at individual chain stores, a rise in productivity and a third weekly drop in jobless claims. The steep slide in the bond market seems to have abated for the time being, with prices recovering following the completion of a mostly successful $60 billion Treasury refinancing.

But even with the improvements in the weekly claims, the labor market remains a big concern, making some economists and certainly investors wonder just what kind of recovery this is.

Tuesday and Wednesday the Federal Reserve will meet to discuss interest rates, with a decision expected Wednesday at around 2 p.m. ET. Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged, because recent economic indicators have implied that a recovery is underway. (For more on the Fed decision, click here.)

Few expect the Fed to make a change, Clayman said, but the meeting will likely occupy investors early in the week. The retail sales and weekly jobless claims will also be key, she said. "If the retail sales can confirm the mostly strong reports we've seen this week and the jobless claims show a drop for the fourth week, you could see stocks turn up, but otherwise, it's likely to continue as its been."

Most of the components of the Standard & Poor's 500 have reported second-quarter earnings and they have been pretty solid, with more than two-thirds beating estimates. But even that hasn't had a big impact on stocks, with investors pleading exhaustion after the run.

Although slim on the earnings front, a bevy of economic reports are due this week, including business inventories and retail sales Monday, consumer and producer prices later in the week and the University of Michigan's preliminary reading on consumer sentiment in August.

Key events in the week ahead

  • Chip equipment leader Applied Materials (AMAT: down $0.90 to $17.88, Research, Estimates) reports results Tuesday after the bell and its expected to have earned 4 cents per share, down from 7 cents a year earlier, according to First Call. But as with other influential tech issues, what's more important is what the company has to say about the current quarter and the rest of the year, as well as the demand for its products.
  • Wal-Mart Stores (WMT: up $0.77 to $57.77, Research, Estimates) is due to report its earnings before the open Wednesday. The No. 1 retailer, a Dow component, is expected to have earned 51 cents per share, up 3 cents from a year earlier.
  • July retail sales are expected Wednesday before the bell. A consensus of economists surveyed by Reuters are looking for a rise of 0.5 percent, after a rise of 0.5 percent in June. Excluding volatile auto sales, retail sales are forecast to have risen 0.4 percent after rising 0.7 percent in June.
  • Producer prices and core producer prices for July are expected Thursday. The price of goods at the wholesale level is expected to have risen 0.2 percent after rising 0.5 percent in July. Excluding food and energy, core CPI is expected to have risen 0.1 percent after having fallen 0.1 percent last month. In addition, business inventories are expected to show a drop of 0.1 percent for June after falling 0.2 percent in the last month.
  • After the close Thursday, Dell Computer (DELL: down $0.30 to $30.94, Research, Estimates) releases its results. The personal computer maker is forecast to have earned 24 cents per share, up from 19 cents a year earlier.
  • The University of Michigan's preliminary August reading on consumer sentiment is expected to show a minor rise to 91 from 90.9 in July.
 Top of page




  More on MARKETS
Why it's time for investors to go on defense
Premarket: 7 things to know before the bell
Barnes & Noble stock soars 20% as it explores a sale
  TODAY'S TOP STORIES
7 things to know before the bell
SoftBank and Toyota want driverless cars to change the world
Aston Martin falls 5% in its London IPO




graphic graphic

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.