NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - You think investors are happy this year? There are plenty of companies out there which have to feel like they got the call from the governor.
It's almost hard to remember just how close to meltdown financial markets came last October. With worries over bookkeeping still running hot, concern over companies' massive pension shortfalls mounting and the economy having entered another one of Mr. Greenspan's soft patches, the corporate bond market looked like it was locked in a death spiral.
Corporate bond prices fell, driving yields higher and raising doubts among investors whether companies would be able to raise the cash necessary to keep operating. Which made corporates fall further still. With many companies having huge rafts of debt coming due in 2003, the potential for a flurry of bankruptcies seemed very real. These worries fed quickly into the stock market, driving it to its lowest levels in five years.
So the revival in investor confidence has brought a huge relief in corporate board rooms this year. Companies that were locked out of the market have been able to issue reams of debt, refinancing all those bonds that were maturing this year. But that doesn't mean they're out of the woods yet.
According to Kirlin Securities chief strategist Brian Reynolds the top five issuers alone -- Ford, General Motors, Citigroup, Bank of America and General Electric -- have more than $100 billion in bonds coming due in 2004. The sooner companies can roll their 2004 debt over, the sooner Reynolds will be breathing easy about the stock market.
On that count, the news last month was not good. Bond underwriting fell to $24.9 billion in August -- well down from May's peak of $71.6 billion and the lowest level since October. That was light even by August standards. The hope is that now that there's been a little stability on the mortgage front, issuance will pick back up in September.
"For me to get worried about the stock market, you have to show me signs that corporate bonds are getting weak and all this debt coming due isn't going to be rolled over," said Reynolds. "If you can't roll the debt over, you have to start valuing stocks on an asset basis. If you can roll it over, you have to start valuing it on an operating earnings basis. There's a huge difference in price between those two."
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