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Hiring to break losing streak
Quarterly survey points to modest jobs growth in the fourth quarter.
September 16, 2003: 9:35 AM EDT
By Les Christie, CNN/Money Contributing Writer

New York (CNN/Money) - The number of U.S. companies planning to add to their payrolls during the fourth quarter is bigger than the number planning to cut, according to a quarterly survey by Manpower, the staffing company.

That breaks a losing streak that began in the first quarter of this year.

The latest quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, which asks human resources staffs at more than 16,000 companies to forecast their hiring plans for the next quarter, found that 21 percent of employers asked expect a net rise in their employment rolls, compared with 11 percent who said they expected their rolls to fall. Sixty-two percent predicted no change and five percent didn't know.

"There seems to be momentum building," says Jeffrey Joerres, CEO of Manpower. "The question is whether it's strong enough to carry through to the first and second quarter of 2004."

Though the most recent recession was recently declared to have ended in November of 2001, the economy has been in "jobless recovery" mode. The unemployment rate stands at 6.1 percent, and three million more Americans are now unemployed than were idle 32 months ago.

Usually, points out Joerres, during recoveries the survey's trend line points up at a steady, 35-degree angle quarter after quarter. This one has seen no consistent upward trend. "We go up, we bounce back down, but we end up in about the same place," said Joerres.

Manpower breaks down its data by region and industrial sector. Regionally, it found the South will have the most robust market for job prospects; 23 percent of employers there expect to have a net hiring gain in the quarter and only nine percent think they'll have a net loss -- a 14 point difference.

The other three regions reported nearly identical figures to each other: In the Northeast and out West, there are 10 percentage point differences between those forecasting net hiring gains and those not, and an eight-point difference in the Midwest. Nationwide the difference is 11 points.

The sectors expecting to fare well in the next few months include financial, insurance, and real estate, transportation and public utilities, and -- unsurprisingly, considering it's the holiday shopping season -- wholesale and retail trade.

Job prospects in the financial/insurance/real estate sector look particularly rosy, the healthiest they've been since the second quarter of 2001, with 19 percent of employers forecasting new hires and only five percent predicting losses.

Manufacturing job growth will barely budge form the third quarter, according to the survey's seasonally adjusted data. That's too bad because Joerres says increases in this sector can be a "real driver of the economy," since many of these jobs pay $20 an hour or more, compared with service sector jobs, for example, paying $7 or $8 an hour.

While news reports of jobs migrating overseas have hit the headlines recently, Joerres downplays this effect on employment. Much more crucial, he says, is that "many companies are just not seeing enough demand to need to hire anybody."

Still, he says, "Employers report a consistent level of job growth across most sectors and all four regions of the United States."

Does that signal a breakthrough?

Overall, says Joerres, "The survey points at optimism."  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.