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Commentary > Bid and Ask
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Don't fear a weak dollar
Wall Street worries that foreign investors will cool toward U.S. assets. But that may not be so bad.
October 1, 2003: 11:33 AM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The prospect of what would happen if foreign investors cooled toward U.S. assets is giving Wall Street the cold sweats again. Perhaps it shouldn't.

The scenario goes something like this: Thanks to the United States' massive budget deficit and current account deficit (that's the gap in the United States' trade in goods and services with the rest of the world), the dollar gets significantly weaker.

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Justin Lahart, senior writer at CNN/Money, talks about a weak dollar and its impact on foreign investors.

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This may, in fact, be the only way to adjust the serious structural imbalances in the U.S. economy, but it could also be quite painful. Foreign investors hold nearly 40 percent of U.S. Treasurys outstanding, and a dropping dollar makes those Treasurys worth less in their local currency terms. It's also inflationary, which is bad news for Treasury debt as well.

Imagine what would happen if overseas investors started scuttling those Treasurys to try and get ahead of dollar weakness. The dollar would fall even further, which would prompt even more investors to dump U.S. assets. Which, of course, would send the dollar down even more. Yipes.

But Lehman Brothers global strategist Ian Scott has looked at periods in the past where foreign investors have had a less-than-friendly view of U.S. assets and found that they really haven't been that painful at all.

The sign of such disfavor -- a weaker dollar and foreign government debt outperforming U.S. Treasurys -- has only happened eight times in the past 30 years.

"One might think of these periods as times when international investors lost faith in the U.S.," wrote Scott in a recent note, "demanding a lower price and a higher interest rate in order to hold dollars."

Here's the rub: During five of those eight periods U.S. stocks rose. In only one the three periods of decline -- a 12 percent drop from the end of 1976 to mid 1978 -- did U.S. stocks fall more than a few percent.

So maybe investors shouldn't get their knickers in too much of a twist over the dollar.

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Bid and Ask
Written by: Justin Lahart

There is one other takeaway from what Scott found, however. During every single one of those periods where global investors shunned the United States, foreign stocks rose. In dollar terms, those gains were quite significant. U.S. stocks may not be a bad place to put your money right now, but investing your money abroad might be even better.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.