NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
U.S. retail chains benefited last month from the early arrival of fall, particularly in the Northeast, where cooler temperatures drove up demand for items such as seasonal apparel.
Discounters Wal-Mart and Target both posted September sales results Thursday that beat their earlier forecasts. Additionally, specialty retailers and even the hard-hit department stores logged better-than-expected numbers.
"September was a blowout month,' said Ken Perkins, retail analyst with Thomson Financial. "A couple of factors contributed to the impressive retail results. The tax rebates helped, the jobs scenario appeared to be a little better and the refinancing activity is still a positive for consumer spending. However, retailers are also benefiting from easier comparisons at this time last year."
Perkins said he expects total September same-store sales -- or sales at stores open at least a year -- to be between 5 to 6 percent, better than his earlier estimate of a 4.2 percent gain.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT: up $0.30 to $58.82, Research, Estimates), the world's largest retailer, said same-store sales grew 6 percent, compared to its guidance of a 3 to 5 percent gain.
"Cooler-than-normal weather in the last week of the period moved sales that would normally occur in October into the September period," Wal-Mart said in its pre-recorded sales update.
The company said net sales in the five-week period ended Oct. 3 were $23.4 billion, up 13 percent over the same period a year earlier. Food, men's and girls' apparel, pet supplies, toys and pharmacy products were the strongest performing categories.
Sales rose 5.6 percent at the Wal-Mart division and 8.2 percent at its Sam's Club stores.
However, Wal-Mart (WMT: Research, Estimates) is cautious for October. The retailer said it expects sales to grow in the 3 to 5 percent range, saying it expects the early autumn shopping to cut into sales this month.
Target Corp. (TGT: up $1.05 to $40.35, Research, Estimates) posted a 5.4 percent sales gain -- its highest monthly level this year -- and beat analysts' expectations of a 4.1 percent gain. The discounter's previous guidance was between 3.5 and 4.5 percent growth.
At department store chain Sears, Roebuck & Co (S: up $1.29 to $50.02, Research, Estimates)., September sales grew 3.2 percent, helped by strength in its Lands' End and Covington clothing brands. The retailer's total sales grew 3.5 percent to $2.5 billion. In August, Sears finally broke 23 consecutive months of sales declines. It expects October sales to be flat to slightly up from last year.
Cooler temperatures also bolstered apparel sales at Federated Department Stores (FD: up $1.12 to $45.52, Research, Estimates), parent of Macy's and Bloomingdale's. The company raised its third-quarter forecast on the back of a 3.2 percent sales gain last month.
It now expects a third-quarter profit of 30 to 33 cents a share, up from prior guidance of 25 to 30 cents. Analysts expect a profit of 30 cents a share for the quarter, according to First Call.
Upscale retailer Neiman Marcus (NMGA: Research, Estimates) had a solid month, posting a 13.6 percent increase in September sales, propelled by demand for luxury apparel, designer handbags, women's shoes and designer jewelry. The company expects same-store sales revenue in its first quarter to jump 9 to 11 percent.
"Any retailer who could not surpass expectations last month has to have company-specific problems," said Bill Dreher, retail analyst with Deutsche Bank Securities. "September was simply a stellar month."
Nevertheless, Dreher isn't convinced that the retail industry is out of the woods just yet. "I suspect sales in October were lost to September because of the unexpected colder weather. So, October could be weaker."
"We remain cautiously optimistic on the state of the consumer. The consumer has learned to "cheap out" and focus on value and convenience. Even though we had good performances, not everybody did well."
Among the disappointments, May Department Stores (MAY: up $0.66 to $26.78, Research, Estimates), parent of Hecht's, Filene's and Foley's, reported September same-store sales fell 0.3 percent. That was narrower than analysts' expectation of a 2.5 percent drop.
And J.C. Penney (JCP: up $0.62 to $22.59, Research, Estimates) said sales grew 0.7 percent, helped by demand for back-to-school items. But sales at its troubled Eckerd's drugstore division fell 1.1 percent in September.
"I still say don't get your hopes up for the holidays," said Kurt Barnard, president of Barnard's Retail Consulting Group. "Yes, the specialty retailers did exceedingly well. Yes, the department stores look like they finally are getting their act together and yes, the discounters again came through with flying colors."
"Remember, there are still over 2 million unemployed workers and over 5 million are on part-time jobs," Barnard added. "Christmas will be moderately better simply because last year was so bad. But unless this jobs picture improves, it's hard to say that the retail industry has finally turned the corner."
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