NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Apparently for growth-starved phone companies, Green Acres is the place to be.
Rural phone carriers, companies such as Alltel (AT: Research, Estimates) and CenturyTel (CTL: Research, Estimates), are expected to post earnings and revenue gains this year and in 2004. You can't say that about AT&T (T: Research, Estimates), Sprint (FON: Research, Estimates), Verizon (VZ: Research, Estimates), SBC (SBC: Research, Estimates) or BellSouth (BLS: Research, Estimates).
Simply put, competition in rural areas is not as intense because the large carriers have concentrated more on urban and suburban markets. Alltel, based in Little Rock, Ark., operates in 26 states, including Mississippi, Kentucky and Florida. Monroe, La.-based CenturyTel has a strong presence in Wisconsin, Alabama, Missouri and Arkansas.
| Related stories
|
|
|
|
|
What's more, wireless is not as much of a threat to Alltel and CenturyTel since coverage tends to be spotty in areas that are not as populated. In order to improve the quality of service, carriers would need to spend more on equipment upgrades and network buildouts, which many are loath to do in these tough times for the industry.
Portability won't hurt rural carriers as much
So Alltel and CenturyTel are not nearly as threatened by the price wars being waged throughout telecom. And that's likely to be even more evident once some new Federal Communications Commission rule changes kick in next week.
On Nov. 24, many consumers will be allowed to transfer their regular home phone number to a wireless phone. In addition, wireless customers also will be allowed to switch carriers and keep their number. This will affect only the nation's largest 100 markets, however. Number portability will not be available for all until May.
But even when landline to wireless portability takes effect nationwide, several analysts don't think that rural carriers will need to be too concerned.
"A customer is going to have to pay more for a wireless phone in a rural area, since the economics there drive rates higher and there is less competition," said Greg Gorbatenko, an analyst with Loop Capital Markets. "The appetite to switch from a wireline to wireless in rural areas is not going to be really there."
Gorbatenko said CenturyTel and Alltel both are attractive investments, given their growth rates and valuations. Alltel trades at 14 times 2004 earnings estimates and CenturyTel's P/E is 13. That's in line with the multiples for BellSouth and Verizon and is actually a discount to SBC.
Others poised to gain
Todd Rosenbluth, an equity analyst with Standard & Poor's, said these two companies should be trading at a premium to the Baby Bells. He also likes another rural carrier, Commonwealth Telephone Enterprises (CTCO: Research, Estimates), which trades at 16 times 2004 earnings estimates and is actually increasing the number of its customers, a rarity in the telecom business. In the third quarter, Commonwealth reported a 4 percent increase in the number of access lines.
Commonwealth, a much smaller company than Alltel or CenturyTel, also is even less likely to be targeted by the Bells or long-distance companies. Commonwealth is based in Dallas -- Pennsylvania, that is -- and offers service mainly in rural areas of the western part of the Keystone State.
"Ask Commonwealth how things are going in Dallas and the Cowboys are not what they are thinking about," quips Rosenbluth.
Rosenbluth adds that the rural carriers also have more upside since they have been slower to roll out services such as long-distance and Internet access through digital subscriber line (DSL) connections. This should lead to not only revenue gains but higher profit margins as well, he said.
One other rural phone carrier that could benefit from the turmoil affecting the rest of telecom is Western Wireless (WWCA: Research, Estimates), a wireless carrier based in Bellevue, Wash., that operates in 19 western states.
Michael Mahoney, managing director with EGM Capital, a hedge fund that owns shares of Western Wireless, said he likes the stock since it tends to run up against only one or two of the national wireless carriers, as opposed to all six, in its markets. Because of this, he said there is likely to be less of a chance that Western Wireless customers will switch carriers once portability kicks in.
Plus, he thinks current earnings estimates are too low. According to First Call, analysts expect Western Wireless to earn 42 cents a share in 2004. Based on that projection, the stock is trading at 41 times earnings, which isn't exactly cheap. But Mahoney thinks that as Western Wireless continues to add subscribers, earnings could wind up coming in as high as $1 per share. Using that estimate, the stock is trading at just 17 times earnings.
All in all, the rural phone stocks do appear to be a safer bet in the sector. And they still are under the radar screen of most investors. "The rural carriers are unloved and not getting the attention they deserve," Gorbatenko said.
Analysts quoted in this story do not own any of the stocks mentioned and their firms have no investment banking relationships with any of the companies.
|