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Will energy bill fuel ADM stock?
Archer Daniels Midland could see ethanol boost from energy bill moving through Congress.
November 20, 2003: 12:23 PM EST
By Andrew Stein, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The energy bill moving through Congress may not just spur you to change what you put in your gas tank, it could lead to an investment opportunity: Keep an eye on Archer Daniels Midland.

The energy bill, which passed the House Tuesday and is due for a Senate vote near week's end, calls for the nation to double the use of ethanol, a corn-based fuel used in gasoline, to 5 billion gallons a year by 2012.

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) currently produces about 1 billion of the 2.7 billion gallons produced in the United States each year, according to Monte Shaw, spokesman for the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA).

"You're looking at basically doubling the production amounts, but the impact on Archer Daniels Midland depends on whether they increase their production capacity," Shaw said.

“ It's also an environmental issue. It's not as though there are other alternative fuels that are cheaper. ”
Christine McCracken
FTN Midwest Research

One Wall Street analyst said the bill ensures the future of a business that the company has repeatedly cited for increased sales.

In a filing with regulators for the latest quarter, ADM said sales in its corn processing division, which includes ethanol, jumped 36 percent from a year earlier due to a recent acquisition as well as increased ethanol sales.

In its latest annual report, ADM again attributed a 32 percent gain in corn processing sales partly to increased ethanol demand, especially in California. The corn processing division, which also includes syrup, starch, glucose and dextrose, accounted for about 30 percent of the company's 2003 operating profit of about $1 billion, according to the filing, or about $300 million.

"In the near term, the demand is there, and that ensures the life of the ethanol business," said the analyst, who spoke on condition his name not be used. "In the long term, increased capacity could come on line as the increased demand solidifies."

ADM (ADM: Research, Estimates) shares probably don't reflect the possible increased use of ethanol, the analyst added, noting he has a "recommended" rating on the stock with a $17 price target. The shares were trading fractionally higher at about $14.40 Thursday.

The stock trades at 15.3 times 2003 estimated profits, versus a P/E of 19 for the S&P 500 on the same basis, according to research firm First Call.

Despite increased demand for ethanol if the bill is passed, Christine McCracken, analyst with FTN Midwest Research, said prices for the additive will likely remain on hold as smaller farmers take advantage of tax credits and ramp up production.

"You're seeing the highest growth rates from smaller farmers, and it's up to ADM if they want to build more plants. But it can sometimes be risky to become too concentrated in one business," added McCracken, who has a "neutral" rating on the stock.

Archer Daniels officials did not respond to numerous messages asking about the company's plans for ethanol production.

Not yet a done deal

Although the energy bill passed the House with 46 Democrats joining 200 Republicans in voting for it, the bill's fate in the Senate is not a sure thing due to various measures in the legislation, including the ethanol provisions.

"The call for renewable fuels has strong bipartisan support," said the RFA's Shaw. "The best way for more ethanol use would be to pass this legislation, but if it stalls, we would expect ethanol legislation may find itself on other bills."

But critics claim the bill gives an unfair boost to corn-producing states in the Midwest.

"Large corporations in the Midwest will be thanking drivers in New York for purchasing gas. The [bill] is a boon to mega-companies in mid-America, like Archers Daniels Midland, that produce corn for ethanol," Rep. Eliot Engel, a New York Democrat, said in a statement this week.

For their part, ethanol supporters note that oil prices have been rising and claim there are environmental benefits.

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Crude prices surged past $30 a barrel Thursday after bomb blasts in Turkey, as well as on rising demand as the United States -- the world's biggest energy consumer -- heads toward winter.

In gasoline, ethanol additives boost fuel octane, or the pressure the fuel can withstand before it ignites in a vehicle's engine. Environmentalists prefer ethanol to gasoline because it's corn-based and reduces vehicle exhaust emissions by 12 percent, according to the RFA.

"The higher oil rises, the more attractive ethanol becomes," said FTN Midwest Research's McCracken. "It's also an environmental issue. It's not as though there are other alternative fuels that are cheaper."  Top of page


--Neither of the analysts mentioned in this story nor their firms own stakes in ADM, nor do the firms have banking relationships with the company.




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