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Commentary > Bid and Ask
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Rethinking the dollar
When the going gets tough, investors don't flock to the dollar anymore.
November 21, 2003: 8:44 AM EST
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Way back in May, Treasury Secretary John Snow gave what amounted to a substantial rejiggering of what the market thought was the United States' "strong dollar" policy.

Keeping the dollar strong wasn't about keeping it strong against other currencies. Rather, it was a policy of keeping the dollar's internal qualities strong. Don't judge the greenback against those other kids in the class, judge it on its own merits.

"You want people to have confidence in your currency," said Snow. "You want them to see the currency as a good medium of exchange. You want the currency to be a good store of value. You want it to be something people are willing to hold."

But even under the Treasury Secretary's definition, the dollar doesn't seem very strong lately. These days, it seems, when the going gets tough, investors get out of the greenback.

Take, for instance, currency traders' immediate reaction to word of the bombings in Istanbul: They sold the dollar. Same thing happened last week, after a truck bomb killed 27 at the Italian paramilitary police headquarters in the Iraqi city of Nasiriya.

Financial turmoil brings the same sort of reaction. The biggest recent stock selloff was on Oct. 22, a day when equity markets around the world dropped sharply. The dollar got hammered.

This isn't the way it used to be. Throughout the 1990s, and even as recently as a year ago, when investors got worried, they piled into the greenback.

Even in the weeks following Sept. 11, when America itself was attacked, this penchant for the dollar in tough times held.

So what's caused the shift in the perceptions of the dollar among global investors?

First off, it appears they believe that the United States is more threatened by turmoil in the Middle East and the terrorist threat than Europe and Japan are. And this was true even when Turkey, which is vying for entry into the European Union, got attacked.

Second, investors appear to believe that the United States' financial stability is at higher risk than other major economic powers'. This squares with growing concerns over the current account deficit -- the gap in the United States' trade in goods and services with the rest of the world.

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We have entered into one of those periods where people wonder if the United States is going to maintain its position as the world's top dog. If past is prologue, for investors these will keep on being interesting, and dangerous, times.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.