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Bonds decline in edgy trading
Treasury prices slip as traders await Friday's unemployment report for clearer economic picture.
December 3, 2003: 6:36 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Treasury prices declined Wednesday as investors reacted to a better-than-expected productivity report during the morning hours, but feared making any major moves ahead of important economic numbers due Friday.

Meanwhile, the dollar hit a record low against the euro for the fourth consecutive trading session.

At around round 6:00 p.m. ET, the benchmark 10-year note shed 6/32 of a point in price to 98-24/32 with a yield of 4.40 percent, up from 4.37 percent late Tuesday. The 30-year bond dropped 16/32 of a point to 102-23/32 to yield 5.18 percent, up from 5.14 percent Tuesday. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The two-year note slipped 1/32 of a point to 99-19/32 with a yield of 2.08 percent, and the five-year note lost 3/32 of a point to 99-23/32, yielding 3.43 percent. Volumes were very light given investors' reluctance to take positions ahead of the eagerly anticipated unemployment report scheduled for Friday.

Investors reacted to a couple of economic reports released Wednesday.

Nonfarm business productivity, or worker output per hour, rose at an upwardly revised 9.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the strongest surge since the second quarter of 1983, the Labor Department said.

The advance was a good bit above the previously reported 8.1 percent clip and slightly stronger than the 9 percent gain economists on Wall Street had expected, which put some pressure on bonds.

"Of course it's great for inflation," Drew Matus, senior financial economist at Lehman Brothers, told Reuters. "But, really, the market doesn't care about the numbers because they're not the payrolls report."

Also Wednesday morning, the Institute for Supply Management said its index of business activity dipped to 60.1 in November from 64.7 in October, well below forecasts of 64.3. Yet it was still the sixth straight month above 60.0 and the more influential ISM survey on manufacturing, released early in the week, was very strong.

Also, the services employment index rose further to 54.9 from 52.9 in October, which will only reinforce speculation of an upbeat payrolls report Friday.

"It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months," Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards, told Reuters. "The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire."

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Dealers noted a rush of corporate supply was also pushing prices around as dealers engaged in hedging strategies for the deals.

But Treasurys failed to move sharply as investors awaited the job market news. The bond market is troubled by the prospect that a really robust jobs figure could lead the Federal Reserve to drop or at least temper its commitment to keep interest rates low for a "considerable" period of time.

The Fed holds its last policy meeting for 2003 next Tuesday and there is much speculation whether it will alter the wording of its statement on the economy.  Top of page




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