NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
With the Dow above 10,000, it may seem to be an odd time to ask about bear markets. But those readers who belong to the "glass-half-empty" school of thought are considering taking some dollars off the table.
I've been receiving lots of questions about the market outlook and specific investing issues. I'll answer some of them each week in this column.
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Here's a sampling of what readers are asking now:
Question: What is a secular bear market? And despite all the hoopla of the past 6 months, are we in one?
The term secular comes via Latin from the Etruscan saeculum, meaning a span of 110 lunar years, or the maximum length of a human life.
Long-term bull or bear markets go on for much less than a century, of course. But the broad decline in stock prices that defines a secular bear market does continue for several cycles of economic expansion and recession.
Even so, I don't think we are in one.
Inflation is the single biggest factor determining long-term stock returns. When inflation is high, as it was from 1966 to 1982, stocks are hobbled.
By contrast, when inflation remains under control, stocks provide solid gains.
That augurs well for the future. Since December 1999, inflation has averaged just 2.4 percent annually and is likely to stay below 3 percent over the next five years.
Even if stocks can't match the spectacular 16.5 percent average annual returns of 1982 to 1999, the 10.4 percent average returns of 1948 to 1966 seem well within reach.
Question: Will the stocks that led the market in the 1990s be the ones that will lead it again?
Maybe and maybe not. Certainly, some tech names, financial services and consumer product companies will be names that you know.
But there is a more rational, systematic way to choose stocks that can help you build a low-risk portfolio offering above-average long-term growth potential.
This consists of following the strongest, most secure stocks and scooping them up when they are undervalued.
Rather than trying to find the high-flyers with earnings growth of 25 percent or more, I look for stocks that have been maintaining moderate earnings growth of 12 percent to16 percent, large companies with long records, diverse product lines, and below-average debt. See the Sivy 70 for a list of such stocks.
Question: If I find a terrific stock with strong growth, should I devote more than 20 percent of my portfolio to it, to really get some kick? Limiting the holding to less than 5 percent doesn't seem to do much for my returns.
Diversification is the only free lunch in investing. By combining growth picks with more conservative choices, you can boost your likely returns while reducing risk.
For most investors, the core of your portfolio should consist of blue chips with above-average growth rates.
Michael Sivy is an editor-at-large for Money magazine. Sign up for free e-mail delivery of Sivy on Stocks every Tuesday and Thursday.
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