CNN/Money 
CNNMoney.com
News > Companies
graphic
Starbucks is still hot
Industry analysts, Starbucks chief bullish on the $4 billion retail empire's prospects.
January 9, 2004: 3:53 PM EST
By Dan Cook, CNN/Money contributing writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - So far, it's been a neat trick: parlaying cups of super-strong coffee into a $4 billion retail empire. Isn't it time for Starbucks to hit the wall?

Not even close, according to industry analysts and money managers on Wall Street. Here's why:

-- The world is far from saturated with Starbucks stores

graphic
graphic graphic graphic
graphic
Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz talks about what's ahead for the world's biggest specialty coffee retailer.

premium content Play video
(Real or Windows Media)
graphic
graphic

-- The international market's wide open; early returns indicate strong demand

-- Starbucks customers have gone card-crazy

-- The brand is still hot

-- The company's debt-free, fueling growth internally while remaining profitable

-- It's got no serious national competition

As with most retail chains, store count is the name of the game at Starbucks. Analysts and company officials insist the Seattle-based retailer is years away from saturating the market with its latte joints. It has 7,500 stores worldwide -- 5,411 in the United States -- and opens three to four new ones a day, on average.

Its goal: 25,000 locations within the decade. Analysts say that'll be a no-brainer. How does Starbucks' chief barista feel about it? "We're going to get to way over 25,000 stores," Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz told CNNfn.

You can't fault Schultz for being bullish. Starbucks said late Monday that sales at stores open at least a year jumped 11 percent in December from a year earlier. Total sales rose 26 percent in the five weeks ending Dec. 28 versus the year earlier period.

The company also raised its guidance for its first quarter and the coming fiscal year, news that drove the stock to a 52-week high earlier this week. And the solid sales numbers and the stock rise weren't flukes.

Starbucks (SBUX: Research, Estimates) has logged 144 straight months of comparable-store sales increases of at least 5 percent and the stock's jumped 162 percent in the last five years. Sales jumped 53 percent to $4 billion over the last two fiscal years while profits rose 48 percent to $268 million over that period.

Analysts are forecasting Starbucks will top $5 billion in revenue in the current fiscal year and fall just short of $6 billion next year. The earnings forecasts are for 86 cents a share and $1.02 a share, respectively, up from 67 cents for the fiscal year ended last September.

An obsessive focus on brand consistency is one reason behind the Starbucks run.

"They've kept a very tight control over quality," said Donald Gher, chief investment officer for Coldstream Capital Management, which owed 228,518 Starbucks shares as of the end of September. "These people are extremely disciplined."

To that end, Starbucks rarely franchises and licenses sparingly in this country. Overseas, it partners with locals to limit exposure to new markets. Rural markets, where Starbucks is viewed as both a destination and a potential employer, have proved to be a new source of sales, as have inner-city locations.

"People want a Starbucks in their neighborhood because it makes them feel upwardly mobile," said industry analyst Sharon Zackfia of Chicago brokerage William Blair & Co., which makes a market in the company's stock. "The concept works everywhere, from Yuppie neighborhoods to East L.A," said Zackfia, who rates the stock at "outperform" the market.

Another factor: dedication to innovation.

The company launched a stored-value gift card called The Starbucks Card in 2001 that took off. The card, often given as a gift, has an initial value set by the buyer and can be recharged at stores or over the Internet.

People love the convenience, and the company loves that card use keeps the long lines moving, said Dan Geiman, analyst with McAdams Wright Ragen in Seattle, which owns and makes a market in the stock. Says Schultz: "The card transformed our business."

Now, that card is paired with a Bank One VISA card developed by Starbucks called Duetto. Unveiled in October, Duetto gives its cardholders bonus points on the stored-value card.

"This card will be a significant driver," predicted Schultz, noting that the sale of Starbucks cards leaped following the release of Duetto.

What's really for sale at Starbucks? Lifestyle, according to Schultz.

"We're not just selling a cup of coffee," he said in a separate interview with CNN/Money. "It's an experience ... an extension of the customer's home and office. Our people have trust in the brand, in the experience and in the company."

Despite its size, Starbucks does face competition in most markets.

Tim Hortons, a unit of Wendy's International with about $1 billion in annual sales, offers an ambiance similar to Starbucks. The chain boasts 2,300 units in Canada and more than 200 in the states, mostly in the east and north.

Krispy Kreme (KKD: Research, Estimates) offers a different, more traditional coffee-and-donuts product but could chew up potential Starbucks sites with brand recognition and customer loyalty that mirrors Starbucks'. Elsewhere, Coffee People, Caribou Coffee and Peet's vie for share.

Nonetheless, said Zackfia, these companies are going to have to play catch-up. "They've just gotten so far ahead of everyone else that the reality is no one can stop them now," she said.

YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS
Howard Schultz
Starbucks Corporation
Wendy's International Incorporated

Even investors who bet against high-priced stocks are believers: They've only got 4.4 percent of the stock outstanding.

"What's the point of shorting it, just because it's expensive?" asks Bill Fleckenstein, a Seattle short seller who doesn't hold shares of the stock. Short sellers sell borrowed stock, hoping the price will drop and they can repay the loan with lower-priced stock, pocketing the difference.

"When they started out I said, 'No way can a coffee shop owner keep its margins up there.' But it's not true," Fleckenstein said. "The management team's done a fantastic job of running that company."

And avoiding the wall.  Top of page




  More on NEWS
Community lenders hit the funding jackpot
Personal income: Biggest bump in 6 months
Don't mess with Texas: More Americans moving in
  TODAY'S TOP STORIES
Exxon's drilling juggernaut
New home sales plunge in November
Stocks shaken by weak housing report




graphic graphic

© 2009 Cable News Network. A Time Warner Company. All Rights Reserved. Terms under which this service is provided to you. Privacy Policy. Advertising Practices.
Copyright © 2009 BigCharts.com Inc. All rights reserved. Please see our Terms of Use.
MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc.
Intraday data provided by Interactive Data Real-Time Services and subject to the Terms of Use.
Intraday data is at least 20-minutes delayed. All times are ET.
Historical, current end-of-day data, and splits data provided by Interactive Data Pricing and Reference Data.
Fundamental data provided by Morningstar, Inc..
SEC Filings data provided by Edgar Online Inc..
Earnings data provided by FactSet CallStreet, LLC.