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Markets & Stocks
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It's the economy
With earnings season winding down, Wall Street's focus is shifting.
February 1, 2004: 8:11 AM EST
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money senior writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - It's clear that Wall Street will shift its attention back to the economy in the weeks ahead. What's not clear is whether that's a good thing.

Throughout the past month most investors have been preoccupied with fourth-quarter earnings to the exclusion of just about everything else. At January's outset, it was all about trying to handicap how earnings would come in; as the month wore on it was all about combing through earnings releases and figuring out what they might mean.

The results have been strong, coming in well above analysts' expectations. And although there are still plenty of companies that haven't reported (like these key three in the week ahead), investors have come to a fair enough characterization of the quarter to think about other stuff.

"It should be evident by now that the rest of the earnings are going to come in at the same sort of magnitude over estimates," said State Street Global Advisors chief investment strategist Ned Riley. "The focus is going to shift."

With the somewhat tougher stance the Fed took Wednesday in the statement it released following its meeting on rates, investors have plenty of impetus to set their sights on the economy again. By dropping its promise to hold rates steady for a "considerable period," and saying instead it could be "patient" before tightening, observers say the Fed regained its flexibility and also made clear that its decision to move will be based on how the economy performs, not the passage of time.

So, watch the big economic reports. Two of them will be served up in the coming week -- the January purchasing managers' index from the Institute for Supply Management on Monday and the January employment report Friday. (Click here for a line up of the week's key events.)

Monday's purchasing managers index will probably show that manufacturing activity kept on chugging along over the past month, although some economists think it will slip a bit from December's level. In the context of all those good earnings reports we've been seeing, it would take a very weak report to get investors worried that business is in trouble.

Friday's employment report will be far more important. The continued slack in the labor market remains the economy's biggest challenge and is the major reason why the Fed is keeping its monetary taps wide open.

"It's critical that the labor market start to show unambiguous signs of strength," said Deutsche Asset Management Americas chief economist Josh Feinman. "It's a necessary condition for the recovery to be on a self-sustaining path."

Many market participants thought December would mark the shift to stronger jobs growth and they were bitterly disappointed when the employment report showed growth of just 1,000 workers, well below what had been forecast.

Economists viewed the December report as an aberration, because it was very much out of line with what they were seeing in weekly jobless claims and the household report that is used for determining the unemployment rate.

There should be a bounceback in January. Economists note that inclement weather and lackluster holiday season hiring by retailers may have pushed the December rolls lower -- particularly since the Labor Department seasonally adjusts the December numbers for a holiday-related surge. Making for even more fun, the Labor Department is doing its annual benchmark revisions to its payrolls numbers. This has usually led to upward revisions of past data.

A strong report, though clearly a boon for the economy at large, might cause tremors in the market some investors may not be prepared to handle, points out Credit Suisse First Boston equity strategist Paddy Jilek in a recent note. The yield curve (the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates) would flatten suddenly while many financial institutions are banking on it to remain steep.

And the dollar would strengthen, which would be bad news for gold stocks -- one of the market's favorite areas right now.

Key events in the week ahead

  • Earnings reports are still straggling in. Here are three to watch.
  • Economists polled by Briefing.com expect personal income for December, due out Monday, rose 0.2 percent versus November's 0.5 percent gain. Spending is expected to rise 0.5 percent, up from November's 0.4 percent gain.
  • The Institute for Supply Management's purchasing management index for January is expected to come in at 64 versus December's 63.4. Any number over 50 represents expansion in the manufacturing economy.
  • December construction spending figures, also due out Monday, are expected to show a gain of 0.8 percent compared with November's 1.2 percent.
  • January car and truck sales, released through the day Tuesday, are expected to come in at an annualized 13.8 million, down from December's 14.7 million.
  • The Institute for Supply Management's services index for January, due Wednesday, is expected to pick up to 60 from December's 58.
  • December factory orders, slated for Wednesday, are expected to rise by 0.3 percent after posting a 1.4 percent decline in November.
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  • The government's preliminary read on fourth-quarter productivity, out on Thursday, is expected to show annualized growth of 3.4 percent compared with 9.4 percent growth in the third quarter.
  • Economists expect Friday's January jobs report to show a gain of 180,000 in payrolls versus December's gain of 1,000. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.7 percent.
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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.