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Markets & Stocks
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Girding for the G7
Despite the kvetching, the Group of Seven seems unlikely to stamp on the dollar's decline.
February 6, 2004: 9:21 AM EST
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money senior writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Market participants were quick to label last fall's Group of Seven finance ministers' meeting in Dubai the "mini-Plaza" because, as at the famous confab at New York's Plaza Hotel in 1985, the get-together seemed to signal an agreement that the dollar needed to keep dropping.

Now, with the greenback having fallen another 9 percent against the currencies of America's big trading partners, people are wondering if we're in for a "mini-Louvre" when the G7 finance ministers meet Friday and Saturday in Boca Raton, Fla. It was at a February 1987 meeting at the Louvre that finance ministers decided the dollar decline sparked by the Plaza Accord had gone far enough.

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CNNfn's Kathleen Hays has a preview of this weekend's meeting of the G-7 finance ministers in Boca Raton, Florida.

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But although many of the G7 ministers would undoubtedly like to see the buck stop falling, it seems unlikely the Louvre boat will be making a call at Boca.

"Some people may be looking for a mini-Louvre, but it looks like nothing is going to change," said HSBC currency strategist Marc Chandler. "The dollar is going to stay under pressure."

The major reason is that the biggest player at the table, the United States, doesn't appear to have any problem with seeing the dollar drop. The sliding sawbuck is helping boost the profits of U.S. companies that sell abroad while also making companies more price-competitive at home against overseas counterparts.

A decline in the dollar may also be seen by the White House as the best way to ease the current account deficit, the gap in the United States' trade in goods and services with the rest of the world. It even may be a good way to deal with the growing budget deficit on the view that it's easier to pay off dollar-denominated debt when the dollar gets dinged.

U.S. policymakers are also mindful of what came not long after the Louvre: The stock market crash of 1987.

"The Louvre Accord was a mistake," wrote Richard Clarida, a former staff economist with President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors and President Bush's Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy from February 2002 to May 2003, in the Wall Street Journal last week. "The dollar should have been allowed in 1987 to find its own level, reflecting the monetary and fiscal policies that were being pursued at the time and the global economic recovery that was then under way."

Tough luck for other G7 economies, whose exporters have undoubtedly been tagged by the weaker dollar. Tough especially for Europe.

Boca burghers

Over the past two years, the dollar has fallen 30 percent against the euro. Against Asian currencies it has fallen much less: 21 percent against the Japanese yen, 11 percent against Korea's won and zero percent against the Chinese yuan.

One big reason for the different rates of decline is that Asian central bankers have, to varying degrees, been working to soften the dollar's drop against their currencies. In the case of Japan, this has meant massive intervention in the foreign exchange market. In the case of China, it's meant keeping the yuan pegged to the greenback.

European countries are hopping mad about this, with cause. The dollar likely wouldn't have fallen nearly as much against the euro if other currencies were floating freely. Furthermore, all the mucking about by central banks means that the euro has appreciated against Asian currencies as well.

"The Europeans are obviously frustrated that they're bearing the brunt of the current account adjustment and want the United States to say that the Asians have to play a role," said Bill Sterling, chief investment officer at Trilogy Advisors.

But Europe might not get what it wants.

First there's the matter of politics. Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, points out Merrill Lynch chief Japan analyst Jesper Koll, is risking political suicide by sending his country's Self Defense Forces to Iraq. Meantime, there still isn't a lot of love between the White House and Europe's big powers.

Then there's the matter of what happened after the Dubai meeting. Heading into it, in an effort to soften criticism, Japan let the yen strengthen. That led, in Japan's eyes, to currency market participants putting too much weight on the phrase "more flexibility in exchange rates is desirable" that got inserted in the post-meeting communique. The yen rose sharply and the Bank of Japan ended up spending loads of money trying to stop the move higher.

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This time around, Japan has done anything but signal a willingness to let the yen rise unchecked. In January, the Bank of Japan sold ¥7.15 trillion worth of yen (around $68 billion) in an effort to keep it from rising against the dollar. That was about a third of what Japan sold in all of 2003.

"Europeans' cries are falling on deaf ears," said Brown Brothers Harriman foreign exchange economist Lara Rhame. "Their wish that the euro not bear the burden of readjustment will not make it into the G7 statement."

If anything, Rhame expects a communique that countries can interpret whatever way they please. In other words, the status quo. Currency market participants will likely react by doing what they've been doing for a couple of years now -- selling the dollar, buying the yen and, above all, buying the euro.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.