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Do 12 Words Signal Dollar policy shift?
It may not sound like much, but to Europe a sentence calling volatility bad sounded just right.
February 7, 2004: 10:08 PM EST

Boca Raton, Fla. (CNN/Money) - Has the Group of Seven actually done something to stop the dollar from falling further?

Hard to say. Even if the U.S. is throwing Europe and Japan a strong dollar bone, there isn't much meat on it.

The dollar has been falling hard since the G-7 last met in Dubai in September and called for more flexibility on exchange rates. That was seen as a message to China to stop pegging its currency to the dollar, but currency markets also understood it as a sign the G-7 would let the dollar fall and the euro and yen rise.

So the big sale on dollars began.

So, going into today's meeting of finance ministers and central bankers, the big question was this: would the G-7 signal that they don't want the dollar to fall any further?

Here's what they did.

They added these 12 words to a paragraph in the one-page statement: "Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable for economic growth."

Here at the Boca Raton Resort and Golf club where the meetings just ended, some of the European journalists were exclaiming over this incredible move by the G-7!

Certainly for the Europeans this is significant because they have been complaining about the weak dollar and strong euro hurting their economies. And they have been clamoring for the U.S. to agree to clarify language on flexibility.

But is this the big commitment that the Europeans and Japanese have been pushing for?

Sidestepping

At the press conference for the communiqué's release, Treasury Secretary John Snow -- the U.S.'s point man on the dollar -- was asked if the new sentence about not wanting excessive volatility was a signal the U.S. felt the dollar had fallen far enough.

"I never comment on the subject of exchange rates," he said. He also said that this latest agreement as well as the one in Dubai were unanimously supported by the entire G-7. In other words, a non-answer.

The latest statement also added a key phrase which seemed to single out China as the currency-pegging culprit that needs to loosen up its exchange rates. In the sentence which says more flexibility in exchange rates is desirable, they added the words, "for major countries or economic areas that lack such flexibility."

"Isn't that a reference to China?" a reporter asked.

"The communiqué speaks for itself," answered Snow, adding that it was written "in plain English."

And all this time we thought it was written in fancy English.

Japanese questions

A similar sidestep from Snow came in response to a very interesting question from a Japanese reporter. The reporter asked Snow about the bilateral meeting Snow had had with Japan's finance minister, Sadakazu Taginaki.

Taginaki reportedly told Snow that Japan was going to keep on buying truckloads of dollars to keep the yen from rising too far and asked Snow if he agreed? (Okay, the adjective "truckloads" is mine but that's the gist of the story.)

The Japanese Finance Minister reportedly said the U.S. treasury Secretary did agree with that.

This is very interesting if true because the Japanese have spent billions to support the dollar in apparent defiance of the G-7 agreement to be flexible on exchange rates. Or, as Snow would say, to let markets determine the dollar's value.

Did Snow answer the question? Of course not. Instead he said that Japan like everybody else agreed to the statements in Dubai and Boca Raton. A real theme for the Treasury secretary.

Reality check

So, let the Europeans celebrate, thinking that the U.S. is acquiescing to their pleas for some shift on the dollar, some willingness, even if it's just verbal, to hold the euro down.

But John Snow is being as ambiguous as he possibly can. And it remains to be seen if that's because he wants to let the Europeans think he's agreeing to something he really isn't -- namely, propping up the dollar if it keeps falling -- or if the U.S. is really ready to take action.

The U.S. has benefited so much from the weaker dollar it's hard to see a real change in the policy of benign neglect of the dollar. Unless it were to really crash -- then emergency intervention would be necessary.

It's possible the U.S. is following the Japanese model: agree to whatever the communiqué says on paper, then go ahead and pursue the policy that serves you best. Let the currency chips fall where they may.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.