On this Super Tuesday, as the two remaining Democratic contenders and the two remaining Democratic wishful thinkers get ready for what may be a defining moment, it's interesting to look at one of the party's biggest potential opponents or supporters: the U.S. economy.
Today we see that weekly chain store sales, tracked by Mike Niemira at the International Council of Shopping Centers, were flat last week, after falling 0.2 percent the week before. But, they are UP 7.9 percent over last year, and when the monthly results are officially tallied, Niemira expects to see a gain of 6-7 percent over last year.
Could it be those extra fat tax refund checks?
The bigger refunds are the main reason why economists expect to see healthy spending in the first quarter of the year, perhaps carrying over a bit into the second quarter.
By the second half of the year, optimistic growth forecasts are counting on a nice pick-up in the job market to keep fueling spending.
That may happen. But by "pick up" most aren't thinking 100,000 jobs a year, they are counting on something closer to 200,000 a month.
If the economy is producing that kind of job growth and consumers are spending at a healthy rate by the autumn, it may be tough for Democrats to make the case that Bush has "mishandled" the economy.
On the other hand, there may be a big divide between the upper-middle and upper-income voters who have benefited most from the recent rise in stocks and are securer in their jobs versus the rest of the country who is still looking over their collective shoulder at computers and cheap workers overseas who can do their jobs.
No matter how much we are spending at the malls, that gnawing sense of insecurity may still be the defining issue of this election.
Kathleen Hays anchors CNN Money Morning and The FlipSide, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn. As part of CNN's Business News team, she also contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.
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