NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Happy birthday, stock market rally. This week marks your one-year anniversary.

That's quite a milestone. But it's also a problem. Like a pop star who shoots to fame overnight, you're struggling now, trying to put it all in perspective, let alone come up with a second act.

It's been almost a year since "Shock and Awe," and the start of the war in Iraq, March 20, 2003.

Stocks sold off in the first quarter of 2003 as investors bit their nails and waited for news of war. Markets bottomed on the morning of March 12 and then started rising, eventually becoming the first up year for Wall Street after three years of declines.

Between the morning of March 12 and last Thursday's close, the Nasdaq has risen by 64 percent, the Dow industrials by 43 percent and the S&P 500 by 46 percent.

But very little of that has come in 2004.

"We've gone a full year without a major pullback, which is very impressive, but we've also been stalling for the past six weeks, with the Nasdaq in particular a victim of its past success, because it led the rally in '03," said Bryan Piskorowski, a market analyst at Wachovia Securities.

All three major indexes managed to close higher last week. It was the first time for the Nasdaq in seven weeks. For the Dow, it was the first up week in three, and for the S&P 500, the second up week in three.

But the gains were small, as investors continue to fret over whether the labor market will pick up, especially after Friday's February jobs report, which showed a much smaller-than-forecast rise in payrolls.

Next week brings little in the way of economic news and only one major earnings report, from tech leader Oracle (ORCL: down $0.29 to $12.71, Research, Estimates). It follows Intel's mixed mid-quarter report late last week.

"This is a healthy pullback, and I think the fundamentals remain strong, but I think we're going to see more of this back and forth for the next few weeks," Piskorowski added. "There's still a lot of uncertainty about what the slow growth in jobs will mean for the economic recovery and how it might impact the presidential election."

Regardless of who the candidates are, this is an election year, and election years tend to be good for the market. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, over the last 24 election cycles, in the year of the election, the Dow gained 16 times. (For more on this trend, click here.)

Adding to this is what looks to be a continued low interest rate environment, with the Fed not likely to move rates above a 45-year low at least until the November election is over with, if not even later than that, said Donald Selkin, director of research at Joseph Stevens.

The Stock Trader's Almanac figures show that the S&P 500 has gained in each of the last seven months of an election year 12 times out of the last 13 elections. But that 'last seven months' boon technically shouldn't kick in until June.

Ahead of that, the market is likely to struggle through the confessional period, analysts said. "We're in March, which is smack in the middle of the pre-confessional period," said Michael Carty, principal at New Millennium Advisors.

"This stalling is likely to continue as we get through this period," Carty added. "But in early to mid April, you could start to see stocks move higher as the earnings reports start coming in and they prove to be positive, as the economic news continues to be strong and as the issues that are going to determine the election become more clear."

• On Wednesday, the Commerce Department releases its January read on wholesale inventories. Inventories are forecast to have grown 0.4 percent after growing 0.5 percent in December, according to Briefing.com figures.
• Thursday, the Commerce Department releases its retail sales figures for February. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect sales to have risen 0.5 percent after falling 0.3 percent last month. Excluding autos, retail sales are expected to have risen 0.5 percent after rising 0.9 percent last month.
• Late Thursday, business software maker Oracle will release its quarterly results. The company is expected to have earned 12 cents per share, according to First Call estimates, up from 11 cents per share a year ago.
• According to Briefing.com estimates, business inventories are forecast to have risen 0.3 percent in January, as they did in December, when the Commerce Department releases its figures on Friday.
• Also on Friday, the University of Michigan releases its preliminary read on consumer sentiment for March. Sentiment is thought to have risen to 95.2 in March from 94.4 in February, according to Briefing.com estimates.