NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Among Monday's earnings announcements were contrary results from Gannett and the New York Times. Gannett, the publisher of USA Today, reported a 10 percent gain in first-quarter results, while the Times' profits fell 15 percent.
The results of the two publishers confirmed one trend, however: After nearly four years of depressed spending, advertising appears to be in a strong recovery. Advertising for Gannett's newspapers rose just over 9 percent worldwide, with slightly greater percentage gains at USA Today. Ad gains at the New York Times rose 3 percent.
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The recovery has varied from category to category. Narrowly focused media seem to have picked up first. There were double-digit gains last year for local newspapers, cable TV, Internet sites and Spanish-language TV. By contrast, network TV, national newspapers and national magazines enjoyed smaller increases.
Overall, however, U.S. ad spending increased 6 percent in 2003 and is projected to climb 7 percent in 2004, thanks in part to the U.S. presidential election and the Olympics. Moreover, the large national media look poised to catch up with gains already seen in some of the narrower categories.
The obvious beneficiaries of this trend include ad agencies, companies with TV or radio stations, owners of networks or cable channels and magazine publishers.
Among the Sivy 70, five stocks stand out as plays on an advertising recovery -- Clear Channel Communications, Gannett, Omnicom, Tribune and Viacom.
| P/Es based on earnings estimates for this fiscal year. Earnings growth is the compound annual rate projected for the next five years, according to First Call. |
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General Electric and Time Warner also have significant exposure to an upturn in advertising but are more broadly diversified.
None of the five is noticeably cheap, when you consider their price/earnings ratios compared with their projected growth rates. But that's not uncommon early in an upturn because share prices already reflect investors' expectations of a rebound.
The most significant consideration is long-term growth potential. By that measure, Gannett, Omnicom and Tribune all seem about average. The two standouts are Viacom, with a 15 percent projected compound annual growth rate, and Clear Channel Communications, a leading radio-station operator, with an 18 percent projected growth rate.
In addition to the Paramount movie studio, Viacom owns CBS, MTV, Nickelodeon and Infinity Broadcasting with 185 radio stations. The company also owns an 81 percent stake in Blockbuster, the leading video- and DVD-rental chain, which it plans to divest, probably through a spinoff to shareholders later this year. At $40.89 a share, the stock currently trades at 25 times earnings for the current year.
Clear Channel Communications owns more than 1,200 U.S. radio stations, produces radio programming, owns or has interests in nearly 40 TV stations, and also provides outdoor advertising, including billboards, airport displays and mass-transit displays. In addition, the company's entertainment division produces shows for entertainers such as Sting, Aerosmith and Beyoncé. At $43.76 a share, the stock trades at a high 31 P/E, but offers an impressive 18 percent projected compound annual growth rate.
Michael Sivy is an editor-at-large for MONEY magazine. Sign up for free e-mail delivery every Monday and Thursday of Sivy on Stocks.
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