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Comcast: A deal best left undone
The Disney bid knocked down Comcast's share price by 16 percent. Now the stock looks like a bargain.
April 29, 2004: 6:31 PM EDT
By Michael Sivy, CNN/Money contributing writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - When Hamlet was asked if heavy drinking at Danish parties was customary, he replied that it was a custom more honored in the breach than in the observance. The same might be said for Comcast's February bid to acquire Disney, which was killed on Wednesday. It's a deal that is best left undone.

Comcast certainly has grounds for wanting to make a large strategic acquisition. But once it became clear that the bid for Disney was a miscalculation, it was smart of Comcast CEO Brian Roberts to acknowledge openly that he had made a mistake and walk away.

Many commentators, in fact, have praised Roberts for his self-discipline in refusing to chase a deal that wasn't working out.

So here's the question: If everything is now back to the way it was, why is Comcast stock trading 16 percent below its level before the bid for Disney?

Another deal; cheap stock

It's widely recognized that Comcast, the largest cable television operator in the U.S., badly needs to diversify. And Comcast can afford to make an acquisition, with free cash flow of $2 billion a year.

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There's little doubt that Comcast will find another deal to do. The company could try to acquire content by bidding on MGM. Or it could expand in cable by bidding for Adelphia, either alone or in some kind of joint deal with Time Warner, owner of this Website. Or Comcast could make smaller selective acquisitions.

Whatever Roberts does, there seems little reason to worry that he'll overreach. He's just demonstrated with Disney that he won't.

There's also little dispute that Comcast stock is cheap. The company has a strong balance sheet and more cash than it needs. Moreover, Merrill Lynch, which just upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy, rates it one of the cheapest in the sector.

Figuring the valuation of a cable company is tricky if you look only at P/E, now over 40 for Comcast, because the heavy depreciation and amortization of the cable systems unduly depress reported net income.

But if you look at operating cash flow -- a better bellweather of ongoing profits -- Comcast is trading at a 9.3 multiple. Cash flow multiples below 12 are on the cheap side. And although cash flow can't be exactly correlated with net income, a cash flow multiple of 9.3 would be roughly equivalent to a 15 or 16 P/E for a typical industrial company.

The best argument that Comcast is cheap, however, is simply a matter of common sense. The company is the largest in its industry, and it has an extremely capable CEO. The overall economy is headed up and the media group is quite strong.

So how then, if Comcast stock was worth $36.50 before the Disney bid, can it be worth only $30.57 a share now that the deal is off?


Michael Sivy is an editor-at-large for MONEY magazine. Sign up for free e-mail delivery every Monday and Thursday of Sivy on Stocks.  Top of page




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