NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
A week after the major broadcast networks paraded their fall TV lineups before advertisers, the big news in the world of ad sales is cable's lower than expected rates.
This week, several of the leading cable operators -- among them Turner Broadcasting, Viacom (VIAB: Research, Estimates), Discovery Communications, and InterActiveCorp (IACI: down $0.32 to $31.22, Research, Estimates) -- sold up to $1 billion worth of ads, according to some estimates. In all, cable operators are expected to sell roughly $6 billion in ads during this year's "upfront," the annual period when broadcast and cable networks unveil their upcoming TV schedules and then haggle with advertisers over air time and rates.
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So far, cable networks are not getting the average 9 percent or so ad rate increases that analysts had estimated. "My understanding is that [top cable] networks have been very active in completing deals at [rates] that range from flat to plus 8 or 9 percent," said Jack Myers, an independent media analyst and publisher of the daily Jack Myers Entertainment Report. "Depending on how the next wave of deals are done, it appears that 9 percent might be somewhat bullish."
If so, that's significant. Right now, broadcast and cable networks are jockeying to sell as much as 80 percent of next season's commercial air time. The broadcast networks have the advantage because, despite a steady decline in overall ratings, they still draw the most viewers. Cable operators, however, charge lower ad prices and have been attracting the bigger audiences that advertisers want.
For the 2003-04 television season that ended May 23, broadcast ratings declined nearly 2 percent while ad-supported cable posted a 4.5 percent jump in viewers, according to the Television Bureau of Advertising (TBA).
Overall, TV broadcast networks are expected to sell about $9 billion worth of ads during the upfront, or roughly the same amount they sold last year. Myers estimated that the six major broadcasters led by Viacom's CBS would be able to raise rates 7 percent on average.
Last week, the six broadcast players, including NBC, ABC and Fox, rolled out program 2004-05 schedules laden with reality TV and drama and light on comedy.
No major ad deals have been cut by the networks yet, leading some analysts and media buyers to predict that negotiations could drag on through the Memorial Day weekend.
The way ads sales game works, all it takes is a handful of mega-deals to set a benchmark and then a flood of deals follow within a day or two. But until a general market rate is set, negotiations are more about brinkmanship than actual dollars.
In related news, the TBA reported Wednesday that total broadcast revenues were up 10.2 percent, to $11.2 billion, in the first three months of 2004. That figure includes revenues, both ad and licensing, from syndicated programs and local and national television broadcasts.
Among the big local advertisers in the quarter were car and truck dealers, furniture stores, and companies in the travel, insurance and real estate industries. Sectors that advertised less included restaurants, telecommunications, and food, according to TBA.
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