NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The big question today centers on the consumer, at least when it comes to where the economy is heading, and how much momentum it's losing in the third quarter.

We know that the latest weekly chain store sale numbers have been a bit soggy, and we know that many stores are blaming it on some soggy weather that hurt sales of seasonal merchandise (if you're looking for bargains, and like summer stuff, this is the time to shop!).

But we also saw some very good export numbers especially when it comes to a lot of heavy manufactured goods. And the surveys of manufacturers themselves, and also of small businesses across the country, suggest that companies are seeing good demand for their products and that many of them plan to keep spending money.

So the question is, if the consumer is running out of steam a bit, because the tax cut impact has waned, and the refinancing impact has waned, then will this be offset by stronger business spending and investing?

Too soon to say of course.

But it is one more thing arguing for the Federal Reserve to take it slow and easy when it comes to raising rates. That's the good news or the bad news depending on if you are worried about the economy, or worried about rising inflation.  

Kathleen Hays anchors CNN Money Morning and The FlipSide, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn. As part of CNN's Business News team, she also contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.