CNN/Money One for credit card only hard offer form at $9.95 One for risk-free form at $14.95 w/ $9.95 upsell  
Markets & Stocks
graphic

Earnings: 8 matter, 2 don't
Quarterly results due next week include American Express, Monster, Comcast, Boeing and Exxon Mobil.
July 23, 2004: 3:25 PM EDT
By Mark Gongloff, Chris Isidore, Paul La Monica and Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money Staff Writers

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Not to interrupt the stock market selloff or anything, but second-quarter earnings have been really good so far.

While stock investors have been bailing out of tech and others sectors on worries about the second-half, the second-quarter has so far produced earnings growth of 24 percent versus a year ago, according to First Call. That's the fourth quarter of year-over-year earnings growth of at least 20 percent.

Just over half the S&P 500 companies have reported and 88 percent of the reporting companies have met or surpassed expectations.

But some high-profile disappointments -- most recently, Amazon.com and Microsoft missing estimates by a penny a share -- have exacerbated worries that earnings growth is slowing, and will continue to do so.

And yes, forecasts point to slower growth in the current quarter, an inevitability due to tougher comparisons to a year ago. But the slow down is not tracking to be as substantial as the recent stock selloff would imply.

First Call data show that third-quarter earnings are now projected to rise 15 percent from a year ago. That's up from a gain of 14 percent at the start of the week. None too shabby.

Another 147 S&P 500 companies are due to report results next week.

Here are eight that matter: American Express, DuPont, Lockheed Martin, Monster Worldwide, Comcast, Time Warner, Boeing, Exxon Mobil.

And two that don't: Anheuser-Busch and MGM.

American Express, Monday p.m.

As the No. 3 credit-card issuer and top corporate travel agent, American Express (AXP: Research, Estimates), has its fingers on the two most critical components of the U.S. economy.

In recent years, super-low interest rates have fueled robust consumer spending. A few tax cuts and a bull market in stocks in 2003 put even more cash in wealthier consumers' pockets, a boost to American Express, which caters to people who can pay off their credit card bills every month.

Now, even with interest rates rising and the economy cooling off, wealthy consumers are still spending money, and economists hope businesses will continue to spend money, taking the reins from consumers in driving the economy forward.

Last week, CEO Kenneth Chenault said he expected American Express to meet its long-term goal of boosting profits by 15 percent, but he also warned of a slowdown in the U.S. economy this year.

And American Express, like other financial companies, is vulnerable to higher interest rates. The Fed has already raised its key overnight lending rate once and is expected to do so again at least a few more times this year.

Why it matters: With the growth rate of the U.S. economy apparently settling back to a more normal speed, analysts and investors are keeping an eye on the spending habits of both consumers and businesses. The health of American Express may tell them something about both.

First Call forecast: 67 cents a share versus 59 cents a year ago.

DuPont, Tuesday a.m.

The chemical makers have seen improved demand all year, and there's no reason it should stop anytime soon. After a five-year slump, chemical demand has finally recovered, in tune with the improving economy. The earnings of DuPont (DD: Research, Estimates) and its rivals should benefit nicely.

A recent period of slower economic growth in the United States notwithstanding, the global economy is clearly in recovery mode and that should boost chemical volume growth, analysts say. Chemical demand has already increased from construction firms and others as they increase production. Similarly, First Call estimates that the materials sector is tracking to post some of the best second-quarter earnings.

But it's not all hunky-dory. Higher raw material costs have impacted the industry's profits. Additionally, U.S. and European regulators announced an expansion of a two-year old probe into price-fixing in the chemical industry. Separately, DuPont and Dow's joint venture, DuPont Dow Elastomers, has been contacted regarding a probe into potential price-fixing and antitrust violations in the synthetic rubber market. DuPont took a charge in the first-quarter to prepare for potential losses related to this investigation and said it may take another one in the second quarter.

DuPont reported first-quarter earnings in April that beat estimates, but reiterated a second-quarter and full-year forecast that is short of analysts' estimates. The company has already said it will take a charge in the second-quarter related to a substantial restructuring announced last December. And the stock is down 8 percent year-to-date with the broader market.

Dow Chemical (DOW: Research, Estimates), due Thursday, is expected to report earnings of 67 cents a share, versus 43 cents a year earlier. Eastman Chemical (EMN: Research, Estimates), also due Thursday, is expected to have earned 78 cents a share, versus 61 cents a year ago.

Why it matters: What with the two potential price-fixing issues and a recently-announced complaint from the Environmental Protection Agency alleging DuPont failed to warn consumers about the dangers of Teflon, DuPont clearly has some regulatory issues to reassure investors about.

As for the global economy, strong results and in particular, guidance from DuPont and its rivals would confirm the pickup in industrial demand. It would also provide some reassurance that the recent period of slower economic growth is just temporary.

First Call forecast: 81 cents a share, versus 61 cents a year ago.

Lockheed Martin, Tuesday a.m.

A busy year in 2003 didn't do much for the company's stock. Lockheed Martin (LMT: Research, Estimates) shares fell hard between January and March 2003, when the war in Iraq was heating up, and barely stabilized the rest of the year.

2004 also dawned fairly ugly for LMT, as its shares fell again for the first three months of the year.

But they've surged some 17 percent since then, helped in part by Wall Street buzz about the possibility that Congress might pour more money into the company's experimental F/A-22 fighter aircraft, and the company has been racking up government contracts.

Still, Lockheed shares now trade at about 17 times forward earnings, making them pricier than the broader market, which trades at about 16 times forward earnings.

What's more, Lockheed also has to worry about the competition; in June, Boeing (BA: Research, Estimates) beat it out for a $4 billion spy-plane contract.

Lockheed may also be sweating a little bit about how a potential wave of private space flights could cut into its space business with the government, but probably not much -- that business has fairly puny profit margins anyway.

Why it matters: Though F/A-22 fighter planes probably won't find Osama bin Laden, other Lockheed stuff will likely be useful to the government as it fights a long-lasting war on terror and insurgents in Iraq. Lockheed may have some interesting things to say about the outlook for both conflicts.

First Call forecast: 61 cents a share versus 54 cents a year ago.

Monster Worldwide, Tuesday p.m.

"Take This Job and Shove It" by the late Johnny PayCheck may be a classic anthem for the hardworking common man (and woman). But that might not be a wise ditty to sing to your boss these days, given the suddenly uncertain state of the job market.

Sure, the employment picture has brightened this year. But you wouldn't know that from looking at the stock performance of online career site Monster Worldwide (MNST: Research, Estimates). Shares have fallen nearly 30 percent since the company reported strong first quarter results but failed to lift its second quarter guidance.

The past few months have been tough for Monster since it's no longer clear whether or not a hiring boom in the U.S. is taking place. After three stellar months of job growth from March through May, the employment figures for June disappointed Wall Street.

Staffing company Manpower (MAN: Research, Estimates) recently gave a cautious outlook for the third quarter. And Yahoo! (YHOO: Research, Estimates), which owns Monster competitor HotJobs, reported second quarter results from that division which were good but not great.

Why it matters: Was June just a blip on the road to a sustained job recovery? Or was the wave of hiring during the springtime months the real anomaly? Monster's outlook for the rest of the year will help answer that question.

First Call forecast: 13 cents a share, versus 9 cents a year ago.

Comcast, Wednesday a.m.

If you can't buy them, partner with them. That appears to be the motto of cable king Comcast (CMCSA: Research, Estimates), which tried and failed to woo Disney (DIS: Research, Estimates) into merging with it earlier this year.

Comcast recently announced that it would offer a streaming news feed from Disney's ABC network as well as Disney children's programming to subscribers of its high-speed Internet service.

It may be cliche but this deal is clearly more proof of why content is king in the cable/telecom business. We say cable/telecom because these businesses are increasingly looking alike.

Comcast, like other cable companies, is trying to keep a leg up on phone companies by offering Internet phone service to its customers. And the telcos, particularly the Baby Bells, are countering with their own multimedia Internet offerings.

Why it matters: Who is really winning the battle for the hearts (and more importantly, wallets) of high-speed Internet users? Investors appear to be betting on telecom. Shares of Dow component Verizon are up slightly this year while Comcast has plunged more than 15 percent.

Comcast, because of its size, should give investors the most concrete evidence of whether or not a cable rebound is in the offing. But Verizon (VZ: Research, Estimates) and BellSouth (BLS: Research, Estimates) also will report earnings next week, as does cable company Cox (COX: Research, Estimates). So investors will be looking closely at all four reports for clues about the ever-changing broadband landscape.

First Call forecast: 10 cents a share, versus a loss of 1 cent a year ago.

Time Warner, Wednesday a.m.

Signs of improvement continue to show in most measures at Time Warner (TWX: Research, Estimates), the world's largest media conglomerate. Debt, of pressing concern to the company just over a year ago, is down to targeted levels ahead of schedule. Earnings are up and are forecast to continue to rise. Rather than selling assets, the company is now taking a look at strategic acquisitions, perhaps in its cable operations or a pickup of Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer film studios, which is on the block.

But there are some problems for the companies, whose properties include Time Inc., Turner Broadcasting, America Online, Warner Bros. studios as well as CNN/Money. One is its stock price, down about 5 percent since the start of the year, trailing the broader market, as well as competitors such as News Corp. (NWS: Research, Estimates) and even troubled Walt Disney (DIS: Research, Estimates). Analysts are relatively bullish about the stock's prospects, though, giving it a consensus 12-month target price of $21.00, about 20 percent above current levels.

The company's America Online unit has stemmed the decline in ad dollars but it continues to lose subscribers to both lower-cost dial-up services as well as higher speed connections. And while Warner Bros.' "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban" has pulled in a healthy $673 million in worldwide box office since its June debut, comparisons to year earlier studio results will get tough in coming quarters due to the absence of a "Lord of the Rings" movie this year.

Why it matters: Advertising revenue, responsible for about 15 percent of the company's revenue, is still a good indication of advertisers' view of the strength of consumer spending. Its television networks, particularly CNN, should be helped by the upcoming presidential election as well.

While some of the crisis appears to have passed at the AOL unit, there are still investors who would prefer to see the company undo the 2001 merger and sell or spin-off the unit. An ongoing accounting probe there by federal regulators continues to delay plans for the company to issue shares in its cable operations to use in future acquisitions.

First Call forecast: 15 cents a share, versus 12 cents a year ago.

Boeing, Wednesday a.m.

The nation's largest aircraft manufacturer has been hit hard by the downturn in the U.S. commercial airline industry. If Delta (DAL: Research, Estimates) or one of the other major carriers is forced to seek bankruptcy protections as its management has threatened, it will be another hit for Chicago-based Boeing (BA: Research, Estimates).

The company is trying to move ahead with the launch of a new more efficient jet, the 7E7. So far most of the interest has come from overseas carriers. It also is struggling to overcome scandals on its defense business, which could end a lucrative contract to lease refueling tankers to the U.S. Air Force, a contract it needs if it is to keep the 767 jet in production.

Why it matters: Boeing is the nation's largest exporter and still one of the nation's largest manufacturers. It has lost the lead in sales of commercial jets to European competitor Airbus Industries. Analysts expect it to turn a year earlier loss into a solid second-quarter profit on flat revenue, but the growth outlook is not strong. The forecast for 2005 earnings is less than 10 percent over this year's estimate and a consensus 12-month target price only 5 percent above current levels. The company will have to show some strong improvement to win some converts.

First Call forecast: earnings of 47 cents per share, versus a loss of 24 cents a year ago.

Anheuser-Busch, Wednesday during trading

You say boring, I say consistent. However you want to characterize it, there's no denying the fairly smooth movement of Anheuser-Busch's earnings and stock price over the years.

The world's largest brewer by market share is also the parent of Sea World, Busch Gardens, and packaging and real estate units.

The company's shares have only tanked one year out of the last 20, and that was by 1.5 percent. Throughout the three-year bear market of the early '00's, periods of Fed tightening, periods of Fed easing, the company's earnings and stock have held it together.

Like other defensive plays, the stock didn't do a whole lot in the market rally of 2003. But like other defensive plays, it's poised to do just fine in the tumultuous days of '04. The earnings and the forecast are bound to reflect that.

Why it doesn't matter: Come rain or shine, people drink beer. And they hold onto their Bud stock.

No really, Bud is like a cockroach, it can survive just about anything. Do you remember how after the events of September 11, 2001, financial markets were shut down for four days? And how when they reopened September 17, panic ensued and fearful investors pulled money out of all kinds of stocks? The Dow lost 7.1 percent that day. Bud gained 0.25 percent.

First Call forecast: 83 cents a share, versus 75 cents a year ago.

Exxon Mobil, Thursday a.m.

In case you haven't noticed, oil is back above $40 a barrel again. That's bad news for those of us who need petroleum to work, shop and do business (i.e., most of us), but it's good news for the companies, such as Exxon Mobil (XOM: Research, Estimates), which sell the stuff.

Since bottoming out at $25 a barrel in April of last year, crude oil prices have gained some 64 percent, and most of the big oil company stocks have benefited.

Among the super-major oil companies, Exxon Mobil has actually been the laggard, posting a mere 35-percent gain since oil prices bottomed out. In contrast, BP (BP: Research, Estimates) has jumped 48 percent, ChevronTexaco (CVX: Research, Estimates) is up 58 percent and ConocoPhillips (COP: Research, Estimates) has gained 60 percent.

But don't shed any tears for Exxon Mobil. It's still the biggest oil company in the world, and still No. 2 on the Fortune 500, second only to Wal-Mart (WMT: Research, Estimates).

What's more, oil prices seem unlikely to fall very far any time soon. OPEC's secretary General said this week that the oil cartel was pumping some 2 million barrels a day above its agreed limit, close to its full production capacity.

And many investors are seeking high-quality, low-risk stocks amid uncertainty about the economy and geopolitics. A big, fat oil company might just fit that description for many investors, especially when a lot of the world's uncertainty happens to surround the Middle East, which happens to have a lot of the world's oil supply.

Why it matters: Exxon Mobil's outlook for oil prices in the coming year should be very interesting to those of us who use petroleum-based products - which is to say, everybody.

First Call forecast: 87 cents per share versus 62 cents a year ago.

Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, Thursday a.m.

MGM (MGM: Research, Estimates) has been getting a lot of attention in recent months, from investors and other studios if not from moviegoers. Sony Corp. is reportedly interested in bidding for the studio that is home to James Bond films and a rich library of films, and Time Warner is reportedly also interested in bidding.

But output from the studio itself has dwindled to a trickle. It has had nine films released so far in 2004 between its MGM and United Artist studios, and together they have done total domestic box office of $171 million - or less than a few weeks of ticket sales for a hit movie in today's marketplace.

Why it doesn't matter: Even if MGM is sold, it will be for its film library, and the potential for future DVD and on-demand video sales of some of its classic movies, rather than its future output. Other than James Bond, there aren't many franchises worth saving at MGM.

Shareholders might not even walk away with much of a premium in an acquisition. Analysts have a consensus 12-month target 12 percent below current market prices, suggesting that the market has gotten ahead of itself in expectation of a sale.

First Call forecast: A loss of 11 cents a share, versus a loss of 17 cents a year ago.  Top of page




  More on MARKETS
Why it's time for investors to go on defense
Premarket: 7 things to know before the bell
Barnes & Noble stock soars 20% as it explores a sale
  TODAY'S TOP STORIES
7 things to know before the bell
SoftBank and Toyota want driverless cars to change the world
Aston Martin falls 5% in its London IPO




graphic graphic

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.