NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Is the June swoon over? That's the big question as economic reports for the month of July start rolling in and we get more reports rounding out the picture for June.
The answer, so far: It's mixed.
In fact, mixed was exactly what the Federal Reserve said in its "Beige Book" survey of the nation's economy for the June and July period. Half of the Fed's 12 districts said growth was "modest" to "solid" while five said it had slowed somewhat. Boston said growth was mixed.
Retail sales, according to the report, "were widely cited as having slowed," especially auto sales. And even though manufacturing activity was growing, the Fed saw pockets of weakness and said that even where things are growing, gains are more "measured."
The weakness in retail sales discussed by the Fed certainly dovetails with the weekly chain store sales. They were soggy in June and have only improved a little in July.
Maybe people were so busy buying homes that they didn't have the time to get to the mall to buy new "stuff" and were too strapped for cash to buy new cars. Record existing home sales and near-record new home sales in June and healthy numbers on mortgage applications to purchase homes in July suggest the housing sector is holding up.
There's a big caveat here of course. Existing home sales don't necessarily depict current market conditions because they reflect closings, not mortgage contract signings, and anyone who has bought or sold a house knows there can be at least a couple of months delay between the two.
But how about that big jump in consumer confidence for July? Driving it higher was a few more people saying jobs are plentiful and a few less saying they're hard to get.
Like I said, so far mixed.
Add to the "mixed" list the durable goods orders for June. These orders for "big-ticket" items built to last at least three years are significant because they are a leading indicator for manufacturers' output, they reflect business's desire to invest in new equipment and they show if consumers feel good enough about the future to buy things that cost a lot of money and may involve a commitment to more monthly payments.
In other words, they tell us about confidence in the future.
The June numbers were, well, mixed. Durable goods orders rose 0.7 percent after falling for two months, but absent a big jump in military orders for airplanes, they fell. That's not so great. On the other hand, a core number within the report that measures business demand for capital goods was up for the first time in three months.
Now there's a popular view out there -- so popular that Big Fed Chief Alan Greenspan shares it -- that the soft spot is temporary and will firm up soon. Many blame the big increase in oil prices this spring for crimping people's pocketbooks, boosting the cost of running factories, and slowing down spending.
Fair enough. But with oil prices touching $43 per barrel, why should we be confident that things are going to speed up again, if in fact it is oil prices that are the problem?
Bottom line, the mixed clouds hanging over the economy may have a silver lining. As one trader told me on CNNMoney Morning, a lot of stock market folks -- and bond market folks -- have been worried that the economy was getting so strong it might spur the Fed on to some bigger faster rate hikes. And if the economy is not uniformly strong it will keep the Fed on a measured track.
But that doesn't mean no rate hike on August 10. The Fed is convinced that if it doesn't move rates up now, it could let inflation take hold.
You might think the Fed is "mixed up," but unless the swoon turns into a slump, more rate hikes are sure to be ahead.
Kathleen Hays anchors CNN Money Morning and The FlipSide, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn. As part of CNN's Business News team, she also contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.
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