NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Just one day left to go before the July employment report, which could have a pretty big impact on the markets, and on the presidential campaign.

Wall Street has been looking for an increase in payrolls of around 200,000. A gain of at least that size is needed to erase the doubt raised by the June increase of just 112,000: that the economy is gradually losing steam as the year wears on.

If the July payrolls number is closer to 100,000 than 200,000 it would be a significant piece of evidence for the slumping economy camp. It could give bond yields and stocks a push lower. As for the John Kerry camp, we can only imagine how quick they will be to claim it shows President Bush's policies are a failure.

A number closer to the 300,000 would have the opposite effect: stocks up, bond yields higher, and Bush's people crowing that the boom is upon us, and Kerry can go soak his economic policy head.

So what about a number that's on target around 200,0000?

Still good enough to help the Bushies and boost stocks, perhaps, and definitely good enough to keep the Federal Reserve on track for another rate hike next week.  

Kathleen Hays anchors CNN Money Morning and The FlipSide, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn. As part of CNN's Business News team, she also contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.