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Markets & Stocks > Bonds & Rates
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Record oil prices boost bonds
Concern that the high cost of crude might slow economy pushes yields lower; dollar mixed.
August 5, 2004: 3:56 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. Treasury prices posted solid gains Thursday as record high oil prices raised concerns that the economic recovery may hit a prolonged slump.

The benchmark 10-year note added 9/32 to 102-27/32 to yield 4.38 percent, down from 4.42 percent late Wednesday, and the 30-year bond rose 13/32 to 103-12/32 to yield 5.14 percent, down from 5.16 percent.

The two-year note gained 1/32 to 100-7/32 to yield 2.62 percent and the five-year note climbed 3/16 of a point to 100-3/32 to yield 3.60 percent. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

U.S. light crude was trading erratically on the New York Mercantile Exchange, hitting $44.50 a barrel before easing back a bit to $44.35, still a gain of $1.52. Brent crude trading in London also hit a record high of $41.15, a rise of $1.45.

The record prices came after Russia's Justice Ministry revoked permission for troubled oil company Yukos to use its bank accounts to finance daily operations and pay transport fees to ensure oil exports.

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow singled out energy prices as a special concern that stands out among other signs of a generally sustained recovery, like high levels of home ownership and an improving jobs market.

"These extraordinarily high energy prices are a negative," Snow said in a radio interview Thursday. "They're hurting the recovery and they're extremely unwelcome and it's time...for the Senate to go back to work and pass the president's energy bill."

Rising oil prices may point to a coming increase in gasoline prices, which could put a damper on consumer spending. July's lackluster retail sales figures and June's weak consumer spending reports point to a some reluctance on the part of consumers to increase spending.

"The chain stores sales data is coming in a little bit weak and oil prices are up," John Spinello, fixed-income strategist at Merrill Lynch Government Securities, told Reuters. "That's positive for the bond market, negative for the economy."

If the recovery has indeed hit some softness, the Fed will most likely be patient when it comes to raising interest rates. This patience was reflected in the currency market Thursday as the dollar erased early gains and turned lower against the euro.

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Rising interest rates typically attract capital to fixed income securities, such as certificates of deposit and high-yielding bonds. The euro bought $1.2059, up from $1.2035 in early trading, and the dollar bought ¥111.67, up from ¥111.51 earlier Thursday.

On the economic front, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell by 11,000 to 336,000 in the week ended July 31, below forecasts for 340,000, according to Briefing.com.

The government will issue a report on July's unemployment rate and payrolls Friday, a report that could influence bonds and the Fed's decision on interest rates when it meets August 10.  Top of page




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