NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Americans enjoying lower gas prices may be driving on borrowed time, according to industry analysts who see gasoline rising soon to reflect the recent jump in crude oil.

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Prices at the pump have tumbled 20 cents since May 21, when they peaked at $2.07 a gallon for self-serve regular nationwide, according to Trilby Lundberg, whose Lundberg Survey tracks prices at about 7,000 gas stations every few weeks.

Over the last three weeks, prices at the pump dropped nearly a nickel to $1.87 a gallon, on average.

But industry analysts say low gas prices may have run their course, with crude oil for September hovering near a record high above $46 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange midday Monday.

"It can't last," Lundberg said over the weekend, attributing the fall in gasoline prices to increased supply. "Wholesale gasoline prices are already responding to the crude oil price hikes, and are on the way up, so a turnaround at the pump can be expected fairly quickly."

Phil Flynn, an energy analyst with Alaron Trading, agreed, adding that ample gasoline supplies may be able to keep prices at the pump down for another couple of weeks.

But Flynn predicted gas prices would start to edge higher around Labor Day, and that rather than a dramatic rise, consumers would not see the dip they usually get at the end of the summer driving season.

But John Felmy, director of policy analysis at the American Petroleum Institute, an oil industry group, noted that crude oil prices are only one half of the gas price equation.

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With consumer demand being the other half, Felmy argued that whether Americans can keep their gas habit in check will greatly influence whether prices rally at the filling station.

"I think most people would agree that two-thirds of the economic slowdown we've seen is due to higher energy prices," said Felmy. "And with higher energy prices, consumers will either have to reduce savings rates ... or reduce consumption."

And according to API figures, Americans are buying less gas than a year ago, which Felmy said has helped keep gas prices relatively low.

Only weeks ago, analysts had been predicting gas prices would stay low despite record oil prices.

Jake Bournazian, a government oil economist with the Energy Information Administration, said recently that May's higher gas prices could be attributed to fears that the market wouldn't be able to support the summer driving season's increase in demand.

But according to Bournazian, domestic refiners responded to supply worries by increasing production even while imports rose, resulting in a surplus of gasoline stocks.

Other analysts, however, have been debating whether increases in crude oil would end up boosting prices at the pump.

Oppenheimer senior energy analyst Fadel Gheit recently told CNN/Money that if oil went higher or stayed high for a prolonged period, gas prices could actually fall further due to a wider hit on the economy.

Noting the U.S. economy and the global economy both appear to be slowing down, Gheit said a full-blown recession could result by spring of next year if crude oil prices did not go below $30.

"At the end of the day, people who lose their jobs aren't going to go anywhere," said Gheit.

But Flynn said it was too early to say a recession was unavoidable, and it remained to be seen whether something as dramatic as a recession would seriously change people's driving habits.

"We've been hearing about high crude prices and went through a period of high gas prices in May, and demand for gas is still strong," he said. "Though we did see (gas buying) patterns change when gasoline prices rose above $2 a gallon, consumers have a way of backing off, but then adjusting and continuing on."

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Bournazian said the current gasoline surplus should keep prices relatively stable for the next four to six weeks.

After that, expect to see gasoline climb back above $1.90 a gallon if oil stays between $40 and $45. If oil goes higher, especially on sustained pipeline attacks or other unrest, gas will be back above $2 a gallon, he predicted.

"Certainly, sustained increases in crude prices are going to put upward pressure on gas prices," he said.