NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
The monthly jobs report will be especially important to George Bush and John Kerry when the Labor Department releases its numbers for August on Friday.
The report could give a rousing lift to President Bush's campaign, coming just hours after his party renominates him, or it could give Kerry the ammunition he needs to launch a new attack on the president's policies right after the Republican National Convention ends in New York.
Economists, on average, forecast the economy added 150,000 jobs outside the farm sector last month, according to a survey by Briefing.com, up from an anemic gain of 32,000 jobs in July. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.5 percent.
A Reuters' survey found a range of forecasts from 100,000 to 225,000. A gain of about 150,000 is generally seen by economists as necessary to keep pace with the number of people entering the work force.
Spin spin spin
What's clear is that both campaigns are likely to find something in the report they can crow about.
Republicans will probably point to an unemployment rate that is near the same as it was in late summer 1996, when President Clinton was on his way to re-election. They also hope to point to a rebound in job growth after disappointing figures for June and July.
While economists and investors would view any number below 100,000 new jobs as weak, the White House appeared ready to describe any job growth as a positive.
Asked by CNN's Jeff Greenfield about a possibly weak report, White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card said: "I actually think the jobs numbers will still show growth, so we won't dip into the negative range. They will show growth."
If payroll growth is weak, Republicans will probably do what they did when the July numbers were released -- point to the government's estimate of jobs created from its separate survey of households, which is used to generate the unemployment rate, rather than the survey of employers that generates the payroll number.
"It's been a convenient argument with Bush supporters. They'll continue to cite (the household number,)" said Greg Valliere, chief strategist for Schwab Soundview. "The majority of mainstream economists, headed by (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan, look at household data but they think payroll number is more important."
The administration officials weren't talking about the household survey much in the spring, when it showed a decline in jobs, while the payroll survey was showing big numbers. Some analysts said the gap between the two numbers is a problem that needs to be addressed.
"It does create a lot confusion and leads to different sides telling different stories -- not useful for making good public policy for the labor market," said Wachovia Securities Chief Economist John Silvia.
Worst since Hoover
Even if Bush gets a strong number, Democrats are all but assured of being able to campaign through the Nov. 2 election with the charge that Bush will be the first incumbent since Depression-era President Herbert Hoover to see a net loss of jobs during his administration.
While Bush talks about the gain of 1.5 million jobs from last September through the July report, that still means 1.2 million jobs have still disappeared on his watch, according to Labor Department payroll statistics.
University of Maryland Business School professor Peter Morici says even the household survey that the administration has touted recently shows a weakness in the labor market.
He said if the same percentage of the population were working today as were working in 2000, when unemployment dropped to 3.8 percent, a 30-year low, there would be nearly 5 million more people with jobs.
But Morici and other economists said that, as much attention as the employment report will get from the campaigns and from investors, it might not make that much difference to average voters, since the numbers can be analyzed so many different ways.
"I think what people pay attention to is their take-home pay," said Morici. "It's a weak labor market that is causing slow wage growth, making them feel bad about the economy."
Valliere agreed, saying the general view of a sluggish economy is already set in the mind of voters, and it is unlikely to be changed by either this job report or the September report, due out Oct. 8, the day of the second presidential debate. September will be the last monthly job report before the election.
"I think it (Friday's report) is incredibly important from a market point of view," said Valliere. "But I'm not sure that swing voters in rural Ohio are going to be into the non-farm payroll number."
The latest survey by The Conference Board showed many people don't see the job market as particularly strong. The business research group's consumer confidence index sunk last month to itslowest since May, with the jobs outlook responsible for most of the decline.
Those surveyed saying jobs are "plentiful" slumped to 18.1 percent from 19.7 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" was little changed at 25.8 percent.
Consumers' views of job prospects also worsened. The survey found 15.4 percent expecting fewer jobs six months from now, up from 13.5 percent in the July survey, while those expecting more jobs fell to 16.2 percent from 19.5 percent.
"The level of consumer optimism has fallen off and caution has returned," said Lynn Franco, director of he Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. "Until the job market and pace of hiring picks up, this cautious attitude will prevail."
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