NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Are you excited by this week's nationally televised, Thursday night NFL opener?
 |
|
| Are you ready for Monday Night Football on cable? That's one possible outcome of a new TV deal. |
The good news is that in the future, the league probably will add more such mid-week games to its annual calendar. The bad news: you may have to pay to watch them.
The current contracts between the NFL and its broadcast partners don't expire until the end of the 2005-06 season. But preliminary conversations about the size and shape of the next deals have already begun. When those talks conclude, televised football will be much different than it is today.
Ultimately, the negotiations could lead to more Sunday games moving from free broadcast to cable.
The package of out-of-market games that's now only available on DirecTV will probably be sold by digital cable providers, too.
You might see the addition of regular Thursday Night Football for much of the season.
And a new deal might even move that great American icon, Monday Night Football, from its home on ABC to cable network, ESPN.
More games on cable
While both CBS and Fox would be eager to wrap up an early extension of their contracts this fall, Disney has been more reluctant. So a new deal likely won't be announced until 2005.
But even if those three companies retain all the NFL broadcasts, that doesn't mean there won't be significant changes.
| SportsBiz
|
|
| Click here for SI.com sports coverage
|
|
|
|
The main reason: NBC is unlikely to get back in the mix for a Sunday afternoon game. The network was outbid by Fox and CBS in the last go-round, with each of them paying $500 million a year. Without an extra bidder available to drive up the rights fee this time, the NFL can expect a modest increase in rights fees, at best.
But the league has become used to far-better-than-modest increases. The current deals with the networks bring in almost twice as much a year as the previous agreements.
Thus, expect to see more games gravitate to cable, which lets a network justify paying higher rates by allowing it to reap both subscriber fees and ad dollars.
"Cable is where the money is," said sports broadcasting consultant Neal Pilson.
ESPN's Sunday Night Football offering is profitable, even though it pays the NFL $100 million a year more than Fox or CBS and $50 million more than ABC.
Meanwhile, Pilson estimates, ABC loses $150 million a year on Monday Night Football, despite the fact that it is the network's best-rated program.
| Related columns
|
|
|
|
|
"I have it on reasonable authority: Disney is looking at a possible shift of Monday Night Football to ESPN," says Pilson. "I don't know if it will happen. But financially, Monday Night Football has been extremely difficult for ABC."
ABC won't comment on plans or negotiations, although Monday Night Football announcer Al Michaels said on a recent conference call that his bosses have no interest in moving the game to ESPN.
As for the NFL, it's too early to project details of the new television package. "Our goal is to continue to have a very broad presence on network television," said spokesman Greg Aiello.
But does that mean no significant shift of games to cable? "You can't rule out anything," he replies.
Any new networks to build?
According to Aiello, there are other broadcasters besides the current ones interested in having NFL games.
"The NFL is a network builder," he said. "It had a lot to do with Fox becoming a credible network broadcaster."
Never mind that Fox has reported $387 million of losses on its current deal. "Some of the value depends in how you calculate it," argues Aiello.
Turner Sports -- which once aired split Sunday Night Football with ESPN -- is one possible new player in the mix, particularly if ESPN were to get Monday Night Football.
Even NBC could conceivably bid for a small basket of games to show on one of its new cable networks, such as USA. That might put the parent in the rotation to show the Super Bowl, which is still the biggest payday available for a television network.
Aiello suggested that the NFL isn't eager to have Thursday night football become a regular staple of the schedule.
"A great strength of the NFL is that it's appointment viewing, all day Sunday and Monday night," he said. "(But) if there's a way to continue to improve it, we will."
For the NFL, more TV money is always an improvement. So get ready for the kickoff of Thursday Night Football.
|