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Markets & Stocks
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Bulls at the crossroads
Wall Street gets busy, as investors get set for a slew of messages about the health of the economy.
September 12, 2004: 7:29 AM EDT
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Wall Street had an easy first week back after a long summer vacation. Next week, things get serious.

Day-to-day, the major indexes are likely to give back some of this week's tech rally, and continue their crab-like trading, analysts say.

But on a broader level, market participants will begin to gain a little clarity about some of the murky issues that have restrained the bulls this summer. Namely, oil prices, interest rates, second-half earnings and the strength of the economy.

"There's a lot of information coming out next week, a lot on the economic side," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services.

Reports are due on retail sales, manufacturing, and consumer prices, the broadest measure of inflation.

OPEC meets Wednesday to discuss global oil supply. All of which leads into the following week's Federal Reserve policy setting meeting, in which the central bank is widely expected to boost the Fed funds rate, an overnight bank lending rate, by another quarter percentage point.

Mendelsohn said investors will be scouring the data for answers to "how did the economy do in August versus the earlier slowdown?" and "what does this mean for interest rates?"

Also in the mix: The quadruple options expiration occurs Friday, a quarterly event in which stock index futures and options, and individual stock futures and options all expire simultaneously. The quadruple witch can often lead to wild gyrations in the prices of the stocks in the days leading up to the expiration, as investors either exercise their positions, or roll them forward right before the expiration.

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Mendelsohn said this week's tech rally was partly related to that expiration, as well as to market professionals returning from vacation and deciding that they need more tech in their portfolios, particularly since the beaten-down sector is likely to see a bounce in the short term.

Last week, technology stocks surged, with the Nasdaq gaining 2.7 percent for the five-day period, as investors jumped back into the beaten-down shares. Nokia issued a bullish forecast, a reversal from previous negative commentary.

Meanwhile, after Intel's profit warning the previous week, investors opted for a take-what-you-can-get attitude about Texas Instruments' mixed outlook this past week. Oracle's legal breakthrough in its attempted hostile takeover bid for rival PeopleSoft capped off an active week for technology.

Just around the corner

Next week brings earnings form Oracle, as well as Best Buy, Circuit City and other retailers. With just three weeks left in the quarter, the market enters the heaviest period of quarterly earnings warnings.

"I think people are starting to focus on the earnings now," said Robert Mikkelsen, senior managing director of equity capital markets at Advest Inc.

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So far, earnings warnings have increased from the previous quarter, according to Thomson/First Call estimates, but remain beneath the historic low.

Analysts surveyed by First Call are currently expecting earnings in the third-quarter to rise about 14.9 percent from the same period a year earlier. That's barely changed from the 14.8 percent year-over-year gain called for on July 1.

Actual earnings tend to come in higher than those forecast, but even with that caveat, the third quarter is likely to mark the first quarter in five that earnings don't rise at least 20 percent from the previous year.

Key events in the week ahead

  • On Tuesday morning, the Commerce Department reports on retail sales in August. Sales likely fell 0.1 percent after rising 0.7 percent in July, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Sales excluding autos likely rose 0.2 percent in August, just as they did in July.
  • Oracle releases earnings Tuesday after the close of trade. The business software maker likely earned 9 cents a share, according to Thomson/First Call estimates. That would be a penny more than it earned a year ago.
  • Also due Wednesday morning are August reports on industrial production and capacity utilization. U.S. industrial production likely rose 0.5 percent after rising 0.4 percent in July. Factory capacity use is expected to rise to 77.4 percent from 77.1 percent in July.
  • The NY Empire State index is due Wednesday morning, and is expected to have risen to 20.0 in September after falling to 12.6 in August.
  • The Commerce Department reports on business inventories Wednesday morning. July business inventories likely rose 0.7 percent after rising 0.9 percent in June, according to Briefing.com estimates.
  • Electronics chains Best Buy and Circuit City are both due to report results. Wednesday morning, Best Buy is likely to report earnings of 51 cents per share, up from 42 cents a year ago. Friday morning, Circuit City is expected to post a loss of 11 cents per share, versus a loss of 14 cents a year ago.
  • The Labor Department reports on consumer prices early Thursday. CPI likely rose 0.2 percent in August after falling 0.1 percent in July. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, likely rose 0.2 percent after a rise of 0.1 percent in July.
  • The Philadelphia Fed index is due at noon Thursday. The reading on manufacturing in three mid-Atlantic states is expected to have fallen to 25.0 in September from 28.5 in August.
  • Friday morning, the University of Michigan releases its first reading on consumer sentiment in September. The sentiment index likely fell to 97.0, according to Briefing.com estimates, versus a read of 95.9 in August.
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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.