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Who plans to hire in 4Q
Survey: Hiring plans remain optimistic in 4Q. Manufacturing proves a bright spot.
September 14, 2004: 8:42 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) – Compared with the same period a year ago, the hiring prospects in the fourth quarter appear to be much brighter across sectors, according to a new survey by employment services firm Manpower Inc.

But relative to the second and third quarters of this year, employers' hiring plans haven't changed much.

In the survey, Manpower asked 16,000 U.S. employers about their hiring intentions for October through December.

Twenty percent of companies overall said they would hire more workers in the fourth quarter. That's the same as the expectations reported for the prior two quarters, but double the 10 percent reported for the fourth quarter of 2003 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

"U.S. employers have predicted solid employment activity for the past six months, and they expect to sustain that level of hiring through the end of the year," said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Manpower's chairman and CEO.

The survey found that 28 percent of employers planned to add staff. Another 60 percent said they didn't expect any changes in staffing levels. Seven percent said they expect to decrease staffing levels, while 5 percent said they didn't know what they would do.

Across the 10 sectors covered by the survey, employers in seven of them reported hiring plans on par with what they expected for the third quarter, while companies in two of the industries (construction and education) were less optimistic than they were in the summer about their hiring plans.

Durable-goods manufacturers, however, were slightly more optimistic about their fourth-quarter hiring plans than they were in the third quarter. And compared with the fourth quarter of last year, manufacturers of durable-goods and non-durable-goods were among the sectors that showed the most improvement.

"The manufacturing sectors, along with wholesale/retail trade, are the bright spots in the fourth quarter survey," Joerres said.

Breaking down the numbers regionally

Like housing prices, though, job prospects are a local issue.

The Manpower survey found that on a seasonally adjusted basis the West has the strongest overall increased-hiring prospects of all four regions. And for the third consecutive quarter, the Northeast has the weakest.

In the Midwest, 20 percent of all employers plan to hire more workers. But among the 10 sectors covered, the greatest percentage of companies expecting to boost hiring are in durable-goods and non-durable-goods manufacturing, as well as transportation and public utilities.

In the Northeast, 18 percent of companies across sectors say they'll bump up payrolls. The greatest percentage of employers expecting to boost hiring are in manufacturing (both durables and non-durables); finance insurance and real estate; and wholesale and retail trade.

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In the South, 21 percent of employers say they expect to add workers. The greatest percentage of firms expecting to boost hiring are in wholesale and retail trade, services and education, and durable-goods manufacturing.

In the West, 22 percent of firms overall expect a boost in payrolls. The greatest percentage of firms expecting to hire more workers are in durable-goods and non-durable goods manufacturing and construction. There's also a relatively high percentage of employers who plan to hire more help in finance, insurance and real estate; transportation and public utilities; and services.

What the numbers don't show

The Manpower survey does not measure the actual number of jobs for which employers plan to hire. So, theoretically, even if more employers in one sector – for example, services – plan to increase hiring than employers in another sector, that doesn't necessarily mean there will be more job openings in services.

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Nor does the survey reflect whether the employers planning to increase hiring will offer permanent or temporary positions. And employers are not asked to specify whether those positions are newly created or simply jobs that were left unfilled due to layoffs or attrition.

Nevertheless, the hiring outlook does provide one measure of employment health in a given field.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.