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Bonds struggle to extend gains
Treasurys stick in tight range as traders try to figure out Fed's next move; greenback dips vs. yen.
September 14, 2004: 4:26 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Treasury prices struggled to extend recent gains Tuesday after August retail sales and a record high current account deficit did little to advance the debate over Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

At around 4:00 p.m., the price of the benchmark 10-year note rose 1/32 of a point to 100-29/32, yielding 4.14 percent, same as Monday. The 30-year bond shed 2/32 to 106-13/32 to yield 4.94 percent, up from 4.92 late Monday.

The two-year note gained a tick to 99-27/32 to yield 2.45 percent, and the five-year note added 2/32 to 100-4/32 to yield 3.34 percent.

The sales report left economists looking for third-quarter private consumption growth of 3.0 percent to 3.5 percent -- up from 1.6 percent in the second quarter but consistent with an economy not firing on all cylinders.

"Our measure of core sales, which excludes autos, gas and food, rose a pitiful 0.1 percent, the worst performance since April and impossible to square with Mr. Greenspan's assertion last week that the economy is regaining traction," Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, told Reuters.

Futures prices indicate the Fed will skip a rate increase in November or December after almost certainly raising target rates by 25 basis points at its Sept. 21 meeting.

"We suspect that if the economy remains as soft as it has been lately, the Fed may very well decide a break is in order somewhere along the way," Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial, told Reuters.

Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, remain within sight of five-month lows as the U.S. economic recovery stumbles through a slow patch.

Retail sales fell by a greater-than-expected 0.3 percent, but excluding autos were in line with Wall Street forecasts for a 0.2 percent gain.

Traders had guessed that sales excluding autos might be weaker after Hurricane Charley disrupted shopping in Florida and parts of the South and back-to-school spending at major chain stores fell short of forecasts.

Bonds were buoyed by higher crude oil futures prices as Hurricane Ivan moves toward oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

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In another report on Tuesday, the Commerce Department said the U.S. current account deficit for the second quarter was a record $166.18 billion, above market expectations.

The deficit was 5.7 percent of gross domestic product on an annualized basis vs. 5.1 percent in the first quarter.

The deficit could keep the U.S. dollar under pressure, and were the greenback to fall sharply, that could scare foreign investors away from U.S. assets, including bonds.

The Investor's Business Daily/Technometrica survey released Tuesday showed Americans a little more nervous about the future. The gauge fell to 54.3 in September from 57.7, the biggest decline since February.

The index is sometimes seen as a leading indicator for the University of Michigan's sentiment survey, due on Friday.

In the currency market, the dollar fell against the yen Tuesday. The euro bought $1.2258, unchanged from late Monday, but the dollar bought ¥109.62, down from Monday's late rate of ¥110.14.  Top of page


-- from staff and wire reports




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