NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Stocks posted slim gains Thursday, retreating from earlier highs, as buying momentum waned amid a spike in oil prices and some mixed economic news.
Nasdaq and S&P futures pointed to a mostly flat open Friday when fair value is taken into account.
The Nasdaq composite (up 7.56 to 1,904.08, Charts) gained around 0.4 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average (up 13.13 to 10,244.49, Charts) and the Standard & Poor's 500 (up 3.13 to 1,123.50, Charts) index both posted smaller gains.
Morning reports on consumer prices and jobless claims were fairly encouraging, giving the market an upbeat tone. But that was countered by a weaker-than-expected Philadelphia Fed index, released at midday.
Also cutting into gains in the afternoon was a reversal in the price of oil. Prices had fallen in the morning, as a number of oil refineries disrupted by Hurricane Ivan's onslaught resumed production. But light crude shot back up in the afternoon, adding 30 cents to settle at $43.88 a barrel on the New York Stock Exchange.
The day's volatile stock trade was likely influenced by the light volume, with a number of participants out in observance of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year, as well as the impact of Friday's quadruple options expiration.
The "quadruple witch" is a quarterly event in which stock index futures and options, and individual stock futures and options all expire simultaneously, often causing volatility in the days just before it.
Paul H. Levine, president of Lifetime Financial Strategies, said that it was hard to get a handle on the market in the very short term, due to the impact of the options expiration.
He said that the most interesting development on the day was the fact that interest rates are plummeting, as demonstrated by the movement in Treasurys.
Treasury prices rallied soundly, pushing the 10-year note yield down to 4.05 percent from 4.17 percent late Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
"When you have a robust economic recovery, interest rates go up, and I think what the market is telling us is that the recovery is not robust," he added. "I suspect that the stock market is very vulnerable here and could be in for a pretty serious correction."
After the close Thursday, Texas Instruments (TXN: Research, Estimates) announced a $1 billion stock buyback program and said it was boosting its quarterly dividend by 18 percent.
Before the open Friday, earnings are due from electronics retailer Circuit City (CC: Research, Estimates). The company is expected to post a loss of 11 cents per share, according to Thomson/First Call estimates, versus a loss of 14 cents per share a year earlier.
After the start of trading, the University of Michigan releases its preliminary consumer sentiment index for September. The index is expected to have fallen to 96.7 from 95.9 in August.
After a tough summer and early September, stock indexes have had a better time of it over the past week in a traditionally tough month. But many hurdles remain in place, including rising oil prices, the events in Iraq and the presidential election.
"The market has been in this range of 1,050 to about 1,170 on the S&P for a while, and it's feeling like we're going to break out to the upside at some point, certainly by the end of the year," said Doug Sandler, an equity strategist at Wachovia Securities. "But we're still in the middle of it right now."
Inflation tame, manufacturing dips
The consumer price index, a key inflation measure, edged up 0.1 percent in August versus an 0.1 percent decline in July. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected a rise of 0.2 percent.
Prices excluding often volatile food and energy rose 0.1 percent in August, the same as in July. Economists thought such prices would rise 0.2 percent.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose to 333,000 last week from a downwardly revised 317,000 the previous week. However, economists expected more claims, around 343,000.
Less upbeat was the Philly Fed, released at midday. The regional survey of manufacturing activity fell to 13.4 in September from 28.5 in August. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected a read of 25.
What moved?
Tech stocks continued to pace the advance, leading the market higher as they have for the last week or so, after having been beaten down sharply over the summer.
However, the advance was more splintered than it has been of late, with chip stocks struggling.
"Tech has been hit hard this year, with the semiconductors down nearly 40 percent, so we've been seeing this rise recently," Sandler added. "What's in question is whether this is just a much-deserved bounce after the weak performance, or if this is something more. It's not clear yet."
Chip leader Intel (INTC: down $0.31 to $20.11, Research, Estimates) lost 1.5 percent.
Nortel Networks (NT: down $0.30 to $3.50, Research, Estimates) said third-quarter revenue will fall from the second quarter. The company is in the process of correcting faulty accounting for several years back that has resulted in federal probes and other actions.
Nortel expects to report first-half 2004 earnings and restated 2003 earnings ahead of its end-of-October deadline. Shares fell nearly 8 percent.
Trucking company Swift Transportation (SWFT: down $1.99 to $16.28, Research, Estimates) warned that third-quarter earnings would miss current estimates, due to higher fuel costs. Swift shares fell almost 11 percent.
Dow component Coca-Cola (KO: down $1.12 to $40.04, Research, Estimates) fell another 2.7 percent, one session after warning that second-half earnings will miss expectations.
Advancers beat decliners nearly three to one on the New York Stock Exchange, where 1.10 billion shares changed hands. On the Nasdaq, winners topped losers by almost two to one on volume of 1.32 billion shares.
COMEX gold fell 30 cents to settle at $406.50 an ounce.
In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and yen.
|