NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The old adage "three steps and a stumble" still has fans on Wall Street, but some analysts think it's ready for the glue factory.

Dreamed up by the late technical analyst and guru Edson Gould, the catch phrase refers to the market's tendency to fall after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates three times.

The Fed has done just that so far this year, but not all analysts are certain a "stumble" is on the way for stocks, in part because rates are still at 40-year lows and the Fed's hikes have been much less wrenching in recent years than they once were.

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, for example, Fed policy-makers were known to raise target interest rates a percentage point at a time.

Nowadays, the kinder, gentler Alan Greenspan Fed has been raising rates a quarter-point at a time, and only after a great deal of warning and hand-holding for investors.

That might mean the Fed's rate increases could have less of an impact on financial markets than in the past -- but that's not to say they won't have any impact at all. Here's how some analysts see the impact of higher rates on stocks, bonds, the dollar and housing.

Usually, higher interest rates are not so great for stocks. A study released Tuesday afternoon from the CFA Institute and others found that, over the past 38 years, stocks have returned 21.86 percent a year, on average, when the Fed was keeping rates low and just 2.84 percent when the Fed was tightening rates.

A separate study by the Leuthold Group, the research arm of Weeden & Co., shows that, since 1946, stocks have lost about 2.7 percent, on average, in the year following the third Fed rate hike.

This isn't rocket science: higher interest rates slow the flow of money through the economy, hurting corporate earnings and making stocks less appetizing. What's more, when interest rates rise, they make bonds a more attractive investment, and stock prices have to fall to compete.

But some analysts think the Fed's latest rate hikes have been so anemic that the outlook for stocks depends more on other factors, including the outlook for oil, hovering just below $50 a barrel, and geopolitical worries.

"The economy's problem is not interest rates; it's that there is this global concern about terrorism," said Ram Kolluri, chief investment officer and president of Global Value Investors. "In this scenario, investors and risk-takers are saying, 'Why should I get in the middle of this nonsense; I'll wait on the sidelines'."

This sideline-sitting, which could also describe what corporate executives and consumers are doing, probably won't spell doomsday for the economy or for stocks, Kolluri and other analysts said.

Rather, it could result in small gains for the economy and stock prices in the months to come.

But some analysts are less sanguine about the outlook for the economy, and they point to the recent behavior of bonds as Exhibit A.

Since the Fed began its campaign to raise short-term rates, the rate on longer-term Treasury bonds -- including the all-important 10-year note, which influences home mortgages -- have actually fallen and sharply. On Wednesday, just a day after the latest Fed rate hike, the yield on the 10-year note fell below 4 percent for the first time since April.

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Many analysts think this is a fluke. They expect rates to rise because they think the economy is getting stronger, and furthermore, believe bond investors are just late getting the news.

"A week ago, we went out and shorted Treasury bonds," said Andy Engel, senior research analyst at the Leuthold Group. "We do expect to see rates moving up as people realize the economy is strengthening."

But other observers doubt the bond market is as dumb as it may look. They see short-term rates rising and long-term rates falling and note that this "flattening" of the difference between the two is usually a sign that a weaker economy is on the way.

Further short-term rate hikes are only speeding up this process and worsening the effects of higher oil prices and other economic headwinds, these analysts believe.

"Bond investors are discounting a slowing economy in the months ahead. Equity investors see a rebound ahead, and that instead of acting as a brake on the economy, the Fed's continuing hawkish stance is likely to serve as a sign that all is well," said Michael Panzner, head of sales trading at Rabo Securities USA. "If you ask me, it sounds like at least one group of investors has been smoking something."

Higher rates tend to boost the dollar; fewer dollars flowing through the economy make them more valuable. And overseas investors are more willing to dump yen and euros for dollars in order to buy bonds with higher yields.

But the dollar sank after the Fed's hike Tuesday, possibly a sign that the currency market feels the same way about the economy as the bond market -- that it could be in for a bad time, putting the Fed on hold in the near future.

"Markets could see higher risk of slowing activity from a recurring increase in oil prices," said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial in New York. "In that case, the Fed will safely close the first chapter of the tightening cycle and move to 'wait' mode. Such a plausible scenario would be a negative for the dollar."

Higher rates will certainly slow the housing market, which has been a pillar for the economy in recent years, with booming home prices making homeowners wealthier and a refinancing frenzy putting more cash in consumers' pockets.

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Analysts have been on housing-boom death watch for years now, but the market keeps popping back, as rates have stayed relatively low.

But there are signs the boom may have used up all nine of its lives. Despite a recent decline in mortgage rates, coinciding with the drop in the 10-year yield, refinancing applications have not posted a matching surge, as they usually do, a note said Wednesday from Wachovia Securities economist Gina Martin.

While there are many new homeowners, "many of them locked in mortgages at lower rates," Martin wrote. "[Ten-year note yields] of 4 percent are not cheap enough to create another big wave."

And if the economy defies the naysayers and gathers steam, triggering more Fed hikes and pushing 10-year yields higher, the housing boom could finally be history.