NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - It hasn't exactly been a summer of fun for retailers this year -- but at least merchants can look forward to a little holiday cheer, an industry group said Wednesday.
The National Retail Federation said sales for the crucial November and December shopping period are expected to grow 4.5 percent from last year to about $219.9 billion, a more moderate forecast compared to last year's robust sales growth of 5.1 percent for the same period.
"Although consumer spending has been inconsistent in recent months, we expect the holiday season to bring more stability to the industry," NRF chief economist Rosalind Wells said in a statement.
Home-related merchandise, consumer electronics and apparel are expected to do well in the period, she said.
U.S. chain stores have blamed a variety of factors, including sluggish back-to-school sales, adverse weather, higher gas prices and rising interest rates for soft sales over the summer.
As they prepare for the all-important holiday shopping period, which roughly accounts for a quarter of total annual retail sales, store operators must now also contend with tougher comparable sales comparisons over last year.
At least one industry analyst thinks the NRF's 4.5 percent forecast may still be too optimistic.
"Back-to-school has been very soft and therefore prices are coming down. The discount signs are already being made," said Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, a retail consulting and investment banking firm. "Both Wal-Mart and Target have had anemic growth over the summer. The only sector that has done well is luxury."
"I predict a 3 to 4 percent growth in sales over the holidays, but that will come at a tremendous price to retailers," he added.
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