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Commentary > HaysWire
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The circular logic of oil
Low rates feed the economy, so oil is no worry ... except rates are low because of ... oil worries.
October 25, 2004: 8:36 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Oh, the power of low, long-term interest rates to fuel the housing market by pushing mortgage rates down.

The government's benchmark 10-year note yield is back below 4.0% this morning, as those pesky high oil prices continue to make people wonder if the economy can stay on a halfway decent growth track.

An interesting dichotomy exists right now in the financial world.

The dollar keeps sinking because traders expect the high oil prices to take a bite out of growth. Meanwhile Fed officials and the majority of Wall Street economists say the economy is doing just fine and can easily withstand the small bite oil takes out of growth.

Certainly low long-term rates, and correspondingly low mortgage rates, help the economy do just that. But keep in mind, one big reason why rates are low is that traders are much more worried than pundits that sky high oil prices could push the economy back down into the basement.  Top of page


Kathleen Hays anchors CNN Money Morning and The FlipSide, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn. As part of CNN's Business News team, she also contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.




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