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Bonds follow oil down; dollar gains
Traders fear cheaper oil could fuel growth, while a rise in consumer spending may spur inflation.
November 1, 2004: 4:27 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Bond traders shrugged off a weak manufacturing report Monday and instead focused on falling oil prices and strong consumer spending, sending Treasury prices down a day before the presidential election.

The dollar gained against the euro and yen.

The benchmark 10-year note fell 15/32 of a point to 101-9/32 to yield 4.09 percent, up from 4.02 percent Friday. The 30-year bond shed 29/32 of a point to 107-25/32 to yield 4.85 percent, up from 4.79 percent late last week.

The two-year note dropped 3/32 of a point to 99-26/32 to yield 2.61 percent, and the five-year note fell 9/32 to 100-4/32. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Oil prices eased Monday to close just over $50 a barrel, as concern about a heating-fuel crunch was alleviated over the weekend and traders realized that the market may be overbought.

Bond investors have tended to view high energy costs as a tax on the consumer and a potential drag on economic growth, drawing money away from stocks and into bonds.

Investors also ignored a report saying the nation's manufacturing sector grew at a slower pace in October.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index came in at 56.8 for the month, down from the 58.5 reading in September. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected the index to stay unchanged at 58.5.

Instead, eyes turned to a report saying U.S. consumer spending climbed 0.6 percent in September, in line with expectations. Traders fear increased consumer spending could trigger higher inflation, which erodes the value of the fixed interest-paying investment.

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The looming presidential election cast a pall over the market. Analysts generally assume that a contested outcome would tend to support bonds by prolonging the uncertainty, while a clear victory for either candidate could see safe-haven flows reverse to the benefit of stocks.

The contested vote in 2002 certainly proved negative for stocks and positive for bonds. At that time, the S&P 500 fell 10 percent in a month, while the Treasury yield curve flattened as 10-year yields dropped 70 basis points.

In the currency market, the dollar gained against the euro and the yen. The euro bought $1.2753, down from 1.2791 late Friday but still less than a cent away from last week's eight-month low of $1.2841 and within firing range of February's record low of $1.2927.

The dollar purchased ¥106.46, up from 105.83 Friday.  Top of page




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