The Hamilton Place Mall parking lot in Chattanooga, Tenn., near full capacity at 10:00 a.m. on Black Friday.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Two reports issued Saturday indicate that shoppers are out in force this holiday weekend, spending an estimated $8 billion on Black Friday, although the nation's No. 1 retailer isn't seeing as much traffic as it thought it would.

Visa, the No. 1 issuer of credit cards, said sales rung up on its cards Black Friday -- so called because it's when retailers are said to finally move out of the red, representing losses, and into the black, symbolizing profits -- rose 15.5 percent from last year to a record $4.1 billion.

"Consumers aren't procrastinating this year," said Wayne Best, senior vice president for strategic economic analysis for Visa USA.  "They began their holiday shopping in early November and hit the malls in force on Black Friday."

The retail industry research firm ShopperTrak said it found sales climbed 10.8 percent, estimating that total sales for the day reached $8 billion.

But the cloud in the bright picture came from Wal-Mart (Research), which lowered its sales estimates for November after seeing customer traffic decline toward the end of the week that ended Friday. The company said it now expects to report a 0.7 percent increase in November same-store sales, less than the 2 to 4 percent gain it has been projecting for most of this month (click here for more details).

Crowds were back Saturday, with mall traffic busy, if not frantic. At two big New York-area malls -- the Palisades Center in West Nyack, N.Y., and the Paramus Park Mall in Paramus, N.J., parking lots were crowded but not full around 2 p.m. ET.

Ellen Tolley, a National Retail Federation (NRF) spokeswoman, said she expects to see stores crowded both Saturday and Sunday.

A Chilean family with bags from Toys "R" Us in New York Friday.

"It's important to remember that some people are working today and could decide to shop later or on the weekend," Tolley said Friday.

Some stores, including Sears, were planning for weekend crowds with special one-day sales. "We have something else brewing for tomorrow (Saturday) to get the customers back," Sears' New York district manager John Ford said Friday.

The weather, which was generally fair Friday, wasn't supposed to be as good Saturday, with rain expected throughout the nation's midsection and snow forecast in the upper Midwest.

The NRF estimates that up to 130 million consumers will shop over the combined three-day period.

Anecdotally, Black Friday looked big. Shoppers gathered in the dark at mall parking lots for sales as department stores, discounters and specialty merchants.

"There were lines three to four people deep for about a 100 yards outside Sears and KB Toys at 5 a.m.," said Jeff Odom, marketing director with Hamilton Place in Chattanooga, one of Tennessee's largest malls. It looks like this year people are out much earlier than last year."

In New York's Times Square, an estimated 2,500-3,000 shoppers jammed the huge Toys "R" Us flagship store by 9 a.m. to grab whatever bargains they could (click here for related story).

Toys "R" Us said Saturday that among its top-selling toys this weekend were Dora the Explorer Magic Hair Fairytale Dora and Hokey Pokey Elmo from Fisher-Price, Polly Pocket Relaxin Resort Rock 'N Roller Coaster Hotel from Mattel, and the RC Ford F-350 from Fast Lane.

The Visa and ShopperTrak numbers seem to confirm the first impressions.

Visa spokesman Paul Cohen said sales are being spread out among various types of merchants, with a lot of people giving gifts of travel and entertainment -- such as cruises and resort stays.

"Travel is the gift of choice this holiday season," Cohen said.

And all the shopping isn't limited to stores -- Visa reported that e-commerce for Black Friday were up 28.1 percent from last year, with Cohen saying the increase reflects the trend for online merchants for most of September.

Cohen also said that a larger percentage of transactions this season are being made with debit cards rather than credit cards, meaning there will be "less of a holiday hangover" when the season ends.

But Cohen said the Wal-Mart sales figures bear watching to determine whether the whole holiday season will be a success.

ShopperTrak, differing from Visa, said Black Friday could prove to be the biggest shopping day of the season for the second straight year. But the firm wonders whether the big increase will carry through for the four weeks until Christmas Day is uncertain.

"Black Friday is not always considered to be a particularly good predictor for the rest of the season, as factors like weather, discounting patterns, inventory, and general economic conditions come into play," said Michael Niemira, chief economist and director of research for the International Council of Shopping Centers. 

"Nevertheless, after Friday's robust performance, the retail industry is cautiously optimistic as the holiday shopping season begins," he added.

CNN.com: Planning is key to shopping success

Holiday sales are expected to grow between 4 to 6 percent this year. CNN's Allan Chernoff takes a closer look. Play video (Real or Windows Media)

Unlike last year, when shoppers missed out on the big bargains and bought seasonal merchandise that was near full price, consumers this year were treated to deep discounts as early as the first weekend in November.

Industry analysts already anticipate more aggressive promotions this year. While that bodes well for consumers, it's a riskier bet for retailers because steep discounts that spur sales also erode profits.

The National Retail Federation (NRF), the industry's largest trade group, expects total sales for the November-December shopping period to grow 4.5 percent to $219.9 billion, softer than last year's increase of 5.1 percent. The consensus among analysts is that total spending for the two months will grow about 4 percent.

The two-month period together can represent as much as 50 percent of sales and profit for merchants.