NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If nothing else, give Alan Greenspan and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve credit for one thing: They have turned constant interest rate hikes into something that is nearly a non-event for the financial markets.
A quarter-point rate hike in the Fed's key short-term rate is universally expected, so much so that unless the Fed fails to hike the rate, or hikes it by twice that much, Wall Street will barely be able to stifle a yawn.
But is that really what the Fed wants?
Look at long-term interest rates. If the Fed wants to rein in the economy to prevent inflation from rising, it might be helped in this goal if long-term rates would rise along with its increases in short-term rates, but they have not. The U.S. government 10-year note yield is trading at 4.15%,and has held at the level for the months now, even as the Fed boosted the fed funds rate four times this year, from 1% to 2% -- and is on the verge of a move to 2.25%.
The rock-solid steadiness of long-term rates is softening the blow of Fed rate hikes on the economy and inflation. As for the dollar, the Fed is believed to condone the dollar's slide as a means to narrow the U.S. trade deficit (a weaker dollar makes imports to the U.S. more expensive and makes export sales to the rest of the world cheaper).
But the dollar's recent sharp slide against the euro may have Fed officials a bit more nervous, and so far Fed rate hikes haven't done much to stabilize exchange rates.
The Fed went out of its way this year to advertise its rate hikes as a move back to "normal" short-term rate levels, now that the fear of deflation and recession has past. It put everyone on notice that rates would move higher as long as the economy keeps growing.
The Fed so far appears to have succeeded in making a transition to higher rates without unsettling a growing economy, or roiling global currency markets. But if they're hoping to move long-term rates higher or to put a floor under the dollar, their smooth, cautious policy may be falling short of the mark.
Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.
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