NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Don't drink the spiked egg nog just yet.
Sure, next Friday is Christmas eve, and stock and bond markets will be closed. And while many Wall Streeters are likely to bail out ahead of time, to begin their holiday festivities, there's still a lot going on for the stock market in the week ahead.
Due to the shortened holiday week, Wednesday and Thursday is jam-packed with economic reports, including reads on GDP growth, personal income and spending, durable goods orders, consumer sentiment and new home sales. (For a look at these reports, click here.)
"The final estimate of annualized GDP growth is not expected to change much and personal income and spending and consumer sentiment should all just be up modestly," said John Davidson, president and CEO at PartnersRe Asset Management. He said that the home sales numbers were likely to be next week's most interesting, because the housing starts report from last week was so low.
"But I think people's focus next week is not going to be Wall Street, it's going to be the holidays," Davidson added. "I think you'll see a modestly up week."
Earnings are due next week from Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns and not too many other companies. (For a preview, click here.)
"There's nothing much next week in terms of earnings, and not really hugely influential economic news, but the bias is still pretty positive, and I think we're likely to grind higher," said Donald Selkin, director of research at Joseph Stevens.
Seasonal support
Stocks showed resilience last week, with the major gauges managing to close higher for the five-day period despite surging oil prices, a Federal Reserve rate hike and the impact of Friday's quadruple options expiration, and negative news out of Pfizer.
With the major indexes having gained for 7 out of the last 8 weeks, the advance normally might be in danger of petering out or suffering profit taking. What's working in the rally's favor are seasonal factors.
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"The closer we get to the end of the year, the more we get into that seasonally favorable time frame," Selkin said.
Traditionally, small caps tend to rally from mid-December through the end of the year, according to Stock Trader's Almanac. Although this year, small caps have been rallying all year, so that may not happen, analysts say.
What does tend to happen regardless, is that the last five trading sessions of the year and the first two of the new year tend to be good ones for stocks, according to the Almanac, yielding an average rally of 1.7 percent during that period since 1969. That positive trend could kick in a bit early, giving stocks a push higher next week.
Key events in the week ahead
- Bear Stearns (Research) reports results Tuesday. The brokerage likely earned $2.14 per share, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by First Call. That's down from $2.19 a year ago.
- Morgan Stanley (Research) is also due to report Tuesday and is expected to have earned $1.01 a share, up from 94 cents a year ago.
- Micron Technology (Research) reports results Wednesday. The chipmaker likely earned 21 cents per share, according to analysts' estimates, after posting a loss of 2 cents a share a year ago.
- The final read on gross domestic product growth is due Wednesday. GDP likely grew at a 3.9 percent rate in the third quarter, unchanged from the original read, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com, on average. GDP grew at a 3.3 percent rate in the second quarter.
- Thursday brings the November read on durable goods orders from the Commerce Department. Orders likely rose 0.5 percent after falling 1.1 percent in October.
- Personal income and personal spending figures are also due Thursday. Income likely rose 0.3 percent in November after rising 0.6 percent in October, while personal spending likely rose 0.2 percent after rising 0.7 percent.
- The University of Michigan will release its revised reading on consumer sentiment Thursday. The December sentiment index likely fell to 95.4 from the originally reported 95.7. Sentiment stood at 92.8 in November.
- Thursday also brings the report on new home sales. Sales in November likely fell to a 1.2 million unit annual rate from a 1.226 million unit annual rate in October, according to economists' estimates.
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