NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Just when you think the Federal Reserve is the backburner story of the year, something happens to remind us all that ultimately the Fed is the biggest mover of the financial markets.
Yesterday it was the release of the Fed's policy minutes from its December meeting, the debut of it's "earlier release" policy, that sent the stock market spinning lower and bond yields higher.
But don't freak out yet.
Traders seized on language showing the Fed is looking seriously at inflation and wondering just how strong price pressures are at this point, but a lot of economists say there's no change to more aggressive rate hikes signaled in those minutes.
On the inflation question, the Fed pointed out that some inflation-indexed securities (5-year TIPS) seemed to be pointing to expectations of higher inflation this year, and that with the economy stronger, cost and price pressures would become an increasing risk "absent further reduction of accommodation." !!!! In other words, IF the Fed did not keep raising rates -- i.e., stop reducing the degree of monetary "accommodation" -- THEN there would be an increasing risk of inflation.
Rather than seeing this as a threat of a more aggressive Fed, isn't equally, even more likely the Fed is just telling us what we already know ... that they are going to keep hiking rates this year?
And, in spite of a somewhat longer discussion of inflation concerns in these (tortured, sanitized, super-edited) minutes, the Fed folk in the meeting STILL expected inflation to remain low.
There was also a typically-veiled but obvious reference to the Fed possibly removing that word, "measured", from its description of how fast it will raise rates. If it did, the inference would be the Fed's getting ready to move from quarter-point to half-point rate hikes.
But again, don't freak out. There was similar language in the Fed's November minutes, notes Neal Soss of Credit Suisse First Boston in New York.
Perusing a number of economists' analysis, the weight of opinion tilts toward, "there's nothing new or radically different in these minutes," with a healthy nod to the view that some Fed officials are getting a bit more nervous about potential inflation pressures.
If the Fed wanted to make a splash with its new earlier release of its minutes, it did. If it wanted to clarify where it's heading on interest rates, it remains to be seen if it did or did not.
Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.
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