NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - We're in the countdown to the December jobs report, always a big market focus and often a big market mover.
The consensus forecast is for payrolls to rise 175,000, which would be a welcome move up from November's 112,000 new jobs. That consensus forecast isn't too much of a stretch, because it's basically the average monthly jobs growth number over the past year or so.
Even so, a lot of economists are scaling back their forecasts, saying the number could be weaker.
One reason, this week's December ISM manufacturing survey showed a pullback in jobs. That could be a harbinger of a weaker jobs number. Today's weekly jobless claims shouldn't affect forecasts too much because, one, there is only a rough correlation between claims and payrolls, and two, the government's survey was taken in the middle of the month, a couple of weeks before the latest claims were filed.
Economists at Deutsche Bank point out that the "consensus" has overestimated payrolls in 5 of past 6 months by an average of 98,000, another reason why Wall Street might be leaning now toward a less robust jobs increase.
In any case a weaker number may not have much impact, in part because people are already backpedaling. Another more important buffer could be that the Federal Reserve in the minutes of its December meeting, released two days ago, showed a bit more concern about inflation and no worries about the meager job gains of November. So a weak jobs report would probably not change expectations of more Fed rate hikes.
On the other hand, if the jobs numbers are a lot stronger for some reason, this could have a big market impact, not only because it's not expected but also because it would add fuel the fire of those arguing the Fed is getting ready to pick up the pace of rate-hiking this year.
Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.
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