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An inflation skeptic arises
Minneapolis Fed head signals that "measured" interest rate hikes can still go on.
January 20, 2005: 8:42 AM EST

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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - At long last there is a voice of inflation skepticism in the Federal Reserve wilderness worriers.

Gary Stern, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, says he believes the Fed can keep hiking rates at a measured pace because he does not foresee "deterioration" in inflation prospects.

Translation: the Fed can keep boosting its key short-term rate, toward some unspecified level widely believed to be around 3.5%, by 0.25 points at each of its meetings -- unless inflation suddenly accelerates which he does NOT expect.

Yesterday the December consumer price index fell by 0.1% and the core rose by 0.2%. For the year the CPI was up 3.3%, spurred on by energy prices, and the core (take out food and energy) rose by 2.3%. Those are faster rates than we've seen for awhile.

But consider this: the core CPI was up 2.0% over a three month annualized rate, and 1.9% over the previous six months annualized. Could it be that inflation pressures are leveling off? If so, Mr. Stern may be just the first of many Fed officials to say that inflation pressures aren't tame enough to stop hiking rates, but perhaps low enough for the Fed to remain gentle in its handling of the economy.

-- Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.  Top of page

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