NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stocks slumped for the first three weeks of the year, a phenomenon either encouraging for the markets, or very worrisome, depending on how you look at it.

The last time the Dow tumbled in the first three weeks of the year, in 1982, the market ended up recovering in the second half of that year and closing higher, according to Ned Davis Research. In fact, 1982 ended up being a pretty good year with the Dow closing higher by 19.6 percent.

And the fifth year of a decade has not been a down year for the market in 120 years, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

All good. But here's the problem.

If the market doesn't rally substantially enough this week to not only erase the losses year-to-date, but rather to end higher on the month, all may not be so good.

Since 1950, when January ended lower, the S&P 500 ended the year lower 19 out of 20 times, according to the Almanac.

"There's a lot of earnings for next week, but I don't see what's going to give us a lift," said Donald Selkin, director of research at Joseph Stevens. "If the earnings have been good so far, and stocks have fallen anyway, what could the next wave of earnings do for us, even if they are positive?"

Next week brings earnings from more than 150 S&P 500 companies. Highlights include Microsoft, Nokia, American Express, Altria and SBC Communications. (For a preview of upcoming earnings, click here.)

"Microsoft and Nokia have been beaten down so much that maybe if they say something good, they'll see a bounce," he added. "But Intel and Apple Computer had good things to say and that didn't lift the market, so it may not be enough.

Economic news in the week ahead is light, with only a few potentially market-moving reports, including existing home sales and the first read on gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter. (For a look at these and other key events next week, click here.)

Roughly one-fourth of the S&P 500 have already reported and the results have been good.

S&P 500 earnings are currently on track to rise 16.2 percent in the fourth-quarter versus a year earlier, according to tracking firm First Call. The figure is a blended estimate, comprising already reported results and forecasts for the rest of the companies.

While the number is certainly positive and mostly in line with the earnings growth in the third quarter, it does mark a decline from the previous four quarters, when earnings grew more than 20 percent per quarter.

And that may be partly what's been worrying stocks, in particular, tech stocks, some of the biggest gainers of the stock market rally of the fourth quarter of 2004.

Year-to-date, the tech-fueled Nasdaq is down 6.5 percent, versus a decline of 3.6 percent for both the Dow industrials and the S&P 500.

"I think techs have been down more than other sectors because investors typically run to the more volatile stocks when the market is going up, and jump ship when its weak," said Ned Riley, chief investment strategist at Riley & Co.

"Fundamentally, I think that many of the reports, from companies like Intel, Apple and IBM do portray a relatively sound tech environment," Riley added. "But people are anxious right now generally."

A spike in oil prices since the beginning of the year, following a decline for the commodity in late 2004 may also be a factor. The looming Jan. 30 presidential elections in Iraq pose another uncertainty for the market.

"I guess after all this selling you could see an oversold bounce next week, and some up days here and there in early February," Selkin added. "What's concerning is that there doesn't seem to be anything to lift us on a more consistent basis."

• Monday: American Express (Research) is expected to post earnings of 70 cents per share, according to First Call forecasts, up from 60 cents a year ago.
• Tuesday a.m.: BellSouth (Research) likely earned 41 cents per share, 10 cents less than a year ago; DuPont (Research) is expected to have earned 33 cents per share after earning 29 cents a year ago; Johnson & Johnson (Research) likely earned 64 cents per share, up from 62 cents a year ago; Merck (Research) is expected to have earned 50 cents per share, down from 62 cents a year ago.
• Tuesday p.m.: Texas Instruments (Research) is expected to report earnings of 26 cents per share, up from 20 cents a year earlier.
• Wednesday a.m.: Eli Lilly (Research) is expected to have earned 74 cents per share, up from 67 cents a year ago; SBC Communications (Research) likely earned 33 cents, a penny less than a year ago.
• Wednesday during trading hours: Philip Morris parent Altria (Research) is expected to post earnings of $1.06 per share, just as it did a year ago.
• Thursday a.m.: Caterpillar (Research) likely earned $1.63 per share, up from 97 cents a year ago; Nokia (Research) likely earned 23 cents per share, down from 34 cents a year ago; Verizon Communications (Research) likely earned 64 cents per share, up from 58 cents a year ago.
• Thursday p.m.: Microsoft (Research) likely earned 33 cents per share, a penny shy of a year ago.
• Friday a.m.: Honeywell (Research) is expected to have earned 50 cents per share, 3 cents more than it did a year ago; McDonald's (Research) is expected to have earned 45 cents per share, 10 cents more than a year ago.

• Tuesday brings the report on existing home sales for December. Sales likely fell to a 6.80 million unit annual rate, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. That would be down from a 6.94 million unit annual rate in November.
• Also Tuesday, the Conference Board releases its January reading on consumer confidence. Confidence likely fell to 101.5, analysts estimate, from 102.3 in December.
• The December read on durable goods orders is due Thursday. Economists expect orders to have risen 0.8 percent after rising 1.6 percent in November.
• The first read on gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter is due Friday. GDP likely rose at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter after rising 4 percent in the third quarter.