NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Right now it almost doesn't matter what the numbers on the economy look like, whether they come in above or below consensus, because the Federal Reserve is convinced that interest rates have just one way to move and that's higher.

Yesterday's January CPI was surprisingly benign, up just 0.1 percent on the headline and up just 0.2 percent on the core that takes out food and energy. Welcome news after a big spike last week in the core producer price index.

But underneath the surface many economists say they see more signs of some pressures building. One worrisome nugget: the price index for goods (ex-food and ex-energy) rose at a 0.9 percent year-over-year rate, the fastest in nearly four years.

The minutes of the Fed's February 2 meeting were nothing alarming, with expectations of slightly above-trend growth and views that inflation would not get out of hand. But the minutes continued to show that Fed members think the key funds rate is too low - just driving home the point that rates will move higher.

How much higher? That remains to be seen, but probably high enough to push long-term rates up because that's one way the Fed could ultimately take some steam out of the economy.

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-- Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.