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Tuning into econorama
A big numbers week may finally gives us clues about the Fed's path ahead.
February 28, 2005: 8:41 AM EST

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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - For all you who love following the markets the way I do, this should be a great week.

We started out today with a very important number on inflation -- that's the "core PCE deflator" which is buried deep in the monthly Personal Income and Consumption report. It's important because it's Fed Chief Greenspan's favorite inflation indicator and because it's been running between 1.5 percent and 2.0 percent annualized for quite a while now, suggesting price pressures are still very well contained -- as Mr. G. basically said in testimony week before last. The deflator came in at 2.2 percent with a core rate of 1.6 percent annualized -- still within the zone.

There are a bunch of economic reports out this week, including the manufacturing survey from the purchasing managers, but the big one of course is Friday's February employment report. Economists looking for a gain of 200,000 or more jobs and moderate wage growth. But what will be super important this week is a slew of Fed speakers, starting tomorrow.

Here is where everyone will be listening for more hints that the Fed is going to at long last drop its promise to hike rates in a "measured" way, (i.e., a quarter-point at a time) and thereby give itself the leeway to hike rates a half-point at a time if it wants to.

So by the end of the week we'll have a bunch of Fed comments giving us a sense of what's on their minds and a bunch of economic numbers to let us know what is or isn't worrying them. For bond yields and stock prices alike, this could be a decisive week.

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-- Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.  Top of page

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