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NEW YORK (Dow Jones) - Companies plan to increase hiring in the second quarter of 2005 at the same pace as in the first quarter. Hiring plans for the second quarter are up only slightly from the level planned one year ago, a survey released Tuesday shows, suggesting only a modest rate of increase.
Of nearly 16,000 employers interviewed, 30% indicated they actually intend to increase hiring in the second quarter, while only 7% indicated they planned to reduce staff in the latest Manpower, Inc. survey of national employment plans. After seasonal adjustment, however, the net percentage of firms indicating hiring over layoffs held at the same 21% level recorded in the first after three quarters in a row at a 20% level.
"Companies are as optimistic as they have been for the last five quarters over which we've seen job gains," said Jeffrey Joerres, chairman and chief executive of Milwaukee-based Manpower, the nation's largest staffing company. "Hiring intentions are holding at a high level."
Joerres emphasized that "employers are not going to break out of the recent hiring pattern. There will be no sudden explosion in hiring."
Speaking of the relationship of the Manpower survey to the Labor Department's payroll employment data, Joerres said that "there's not a direct relationship where we can say the survey indicates an average of 225,000 new jobs per month. Companies are just looking at their business and saying they need to do more hiring, but in a measured way."
The hiring plans are firm across industries, with all 10 sectors showing an increase in net employment after seasonal adjustment.
The Manpower employment outlook survey has been conducted quarterly for more than 40 years. The survey is based on interviews with public and private employers asked whether they intend to increase or decrease hiring in the quarter ahead.
In addition, job prospects improved in all four regions - the Northeast, Midwest and South - after seasonal adjustment, from the first quarter readings.
Manpower also issued an international study covering 20 additional countries, including China and Taiwan for the first time. There were 5,000 additional interviews in Canada and Mexico, 5,000 in China and Taiwan and over 14,000 interviews in Australia , Hong Kong , Japan , New Zealand , and Singapore and in 11 European countries, enabling the company to provide the employment outlook on a global scale.
The international survey found that employers in 19 of the 21 countries, including the U.S., are anticipating a positive employment outlook for the fourth quarter. Germany and the Netherlands were the only exceptions.
"China, like the U.S. is experiencing strong economic growth and strong employment gains - a reading of 28% for the second quarter," said Joerres. " Their challange is finding the middle level managers to oversee the entry-level workers being hired."
Manpower plans to add India to its third quarter survey. They typically compile data on a country for two quarters before publishing that country in the survey.
The only two countries to come up with a negative reading were Germany and the Netherlands . "They continuing to have a problem with the strength of the euro," Joerres said.
-By John McAuley, Dow Jones Newswires, 201-938-4425; john.mcauley@dowjones.com Dow Jones Newswires 03-15-05 0021ET Copyright (C) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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